If one party has emerged completely shattered from the political crisis spanning the last 20 days, its the Janata Dal the party of both HD Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujral.
So crestfallen is the Dal today, that several of its leaders who are considered to be against Laloo Prasad, the Dals president and Bihar Chief Minister, doesnt rule out a a major political realignment within the Front. Sources in the Front yesterday said the Samajwadi Party could be the direct beneficiary if this happened, not only in Bihar but also in Uttar Pradesh.
The Janata Dal, which should have been the happiest party, having retained not only the United Front government and the prime minsiters post, looks as if it has just had an electoral defeat.
The reasons are obvious. The recent political crisis has only accentuated the divide within the party and among its various groups. The pressure of the JDs inner conflict was so much on the United Front especially during the ministry making excercise that UF convenor Chdandrababu Naidu had to tell Janata Dal president Laloo Prasad in disgust that it would be better if the Dal formed the entire government and the rest of the Front constituents supported it from outside.
This incident is said to have happened on Monday morning around 6.30 am, when Laloo Prasad insisted on having an entirely new ministry with a complete reshuffle of portfolios. He wanted his deputy Sharad Yadav to join the government, against strong objections from others who felt he should be freed from hawala charges first. Laloo also wanted to drop CM Ibrahim and Srikant Jena for their proximity to Deve Gowda.
He even wanted the Rail Ministry to be taken away from Ramvilas Paswan, his own party colleague from Bihar. The two are not on good terms and Laloo would have liked to remove Paswan from the ministry even, except for the fact that Paswan has a good following among the dalits in the state.
He therefore, struck at Devendra Prasad yadav, food minsiter under Gowda and insisted that he be dropped from the government. At one point, Laloo told a Left leader who was trying to argue with him that if the Left parties decide who should be included in the government, why couldnt he, as party president, not decide who shouldnt be included.
When hours of persuation and a marathon night-long meeting of the United Front failed to satisfy Laloo, even when only over three hours were left for the swearing in ceremoney, Naidu made the suggestion of an all-JD government in sheer disgust. Other allies, tired of the night-long deliberations, also supported Naidu. This is said to have softened the JD president, who finally agreed to let the same government continue, but stuck on DP Yadavs ouster.
In fact the axe on Yadav is actually targetted against Ram Vilas Paswan. DP Yadav was removed as he was actively campaigning for Paswan as Prime Minister. Also, Yadav has been distancing himself from Laloo Prasad ever since he became a minister. There was even talk of him becoming the Chief Minister in case of Laloo stepping down on account of the fodder scam.
With Laloo gaining the upper hand in the party, there is a possibility of a part of the Bihar Janata Dal finding a safe home in the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh. Laloos protege and Bihar MP Pappu Yadav has already moved over to SP and is giving a strong, through limited, challenge to his former boss.
Bihar JD leaders say, in case of Laloo Prasad getting caught in the fodder scam, his anti-BJP backward-Muslim following could switch to the SP, if it was strong enough to provide an alternative. This kind of realignment is also possible in Uttar Pradesh, where the Janata Dal stands little chance of victory if it goes to polls on its own.
The way the rift between the JD and SP leadership has come out during the last 20 days, it appears difficult for the two to co-exist in Bihar and to reach a seat-adjustment in UP in the next elections.
The UP unit of the JD is also realising now that with Deve Gowda as Prime Minister, the party at least had a good campaigner in the state who was able to easily identify himself with the masses. The party expects little from Gujral in winning mass support for the party in UP, leaving it to Mulayam Singh to campaign for them. This is forcing the state leaders to look towards Mulayam for leadership.
