Sowing of kharif crops further advanced during the week ended on Thursday as the southwest monsoon continued to remain active over some parts of the country.
However, a big question mark looms over the final output as 22 per cent area is still to be sown, while the monsoon is expected to be active for only 45 days more. Already, there are concerns that kharif foodgrains production in 2014-15 might drop 5-10 million tonnes owing to delayed showers. Rainfall during the week ended Wednesday was 20 per cent below normal against an above-normal rains during the previous week.
According to the latest data from the agriculture department, kharif crops have been sown in 87.67 million hectares, against 92.80 million hectares during the same period last year.
Normally, 107 million hectares of land is brought under kharif crops during the entire season. The major drop in acreage compared to last year has been on coarse cereals, soybean and pulses.
The southwest monsoon enters India from June and starts retracting from September onwards. Monsoon this year, till August 14, was deficient by 17 per cent across the country. Besides, this year the rains entered the country four days late.
By the end of June, the monsoon deficit widened to almost 43 per cent triggering fears of a widespread drought. While rains revived from the middle of August in many parts of the country, the showers haven’t been enough to cover the entire shortfall.
Early this week, the met department had scaled down its projections for the 2014 southwest monsoon season to 87 per cent of the long period average (LPA), against its June forecast of 93 per cent of LPA due to poor performance of the rains in the first 45 days. Both the projections were with a model error of four per cent.
The worst rainfall this year, bordering on a drought, is expected to be in north-west India comprising the major foodgrains growing states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, the met said.
It added that the rainfall in north-west India is expected to be just 76 per cent of the LPA. It classifies any rain shortage over 25 per cent of the LPA as drought.
Among other regions, rainfall over central India is expected to be 89 per cent of the LPA, while that over the southern peninsula is expected to be 87 per cent of LPA.
In east and north-east India, the southwest monsoon this year is expected to be around 93 per cent of the LPA. This practically means no part of the country is expected to receive normal rains this year. The region-wise forecast is with a model error of eight per cent.
The India Meteorological Department in its month-wise forecast said the rainfall in August will be 96 per cent of LPA, while that in September will be somewhere around 95 per cent of the LPA.
Rain between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the average of the last 50 years, technically the LPA, is considered normal. LPA is 89 cm of rain.
Last year's grain output at 264.77 mn tonnes
Foodgrain production during the last crop year ended June has been revised upwards to a record 264.77 million tonnes on the back of an all-time high output of wheat and rice, according to the fourth advanced estimate for agriculture production released on Thursday.
The numbers might not have an immediate impact on food inflation but could help in boosting the 2014-15 GDP numbers. Wheat production has been revised to 95.91 tonnes against 95.85 tonnes in the previous estimate released in May this year. Similarly, rice output has been raised to 106.54 tonnes from 106.29 tonnes pegged in May.
In the previous crop year, rice production stood at 105.24 tonnes and wheat at 93.51 tonnes.
Record production has also been achieved in the case of tur (3.29 tonnes), gram (9.88 tonnes), and production of all pulses together is pegged at 19.27 tonnes.
Similarly, in the case of cotton, the record production has been seen and estimated at 36.59 million bales. Previous production records in total foodgrains, rice and wheat were achieved in 2011-12 crop year at 259.32 tonnes, 105.31 tonnes, and 94.88 tonnes, respectively.
