 "Narendra Modi")
On November 7, 2013 at an election rally in Kanker, Chhattisgarh, Narendra Modi made the famous “Rs 15 lakh in every bank account” statement. He told the crowd gathered in the naxal hit district that every citizen could get Rs 15 lakh in their accounts if all the black money was brought back from foreign shores. If recent reports are to be believed, then the Modi government will soon make the first move by depositing Rs 10,000 in zero balance accounts opened under the Prime Minister Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY). Various estimates suggest that the government may get as much as Rs 3 lakh crore as dividend payout by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is the value of cash that may not be exchanged in the demonetisation exercise.
If PM Modi goes ahead with his move to deposit Rs 10,000 in zero balance Jan Dhan accounts, his party could reap rich dividends in seven state elections scheduled in 2017.
The Rashtriya Swyamasevak Sangh (RSS) wants the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to wrest Uttar Pradesh (UP) at any cost. An analysis of Jan Dhan data suggests that the Modi government is now in a position to achieve that objective.
The number of people with no money in their Jan Dhan accounts in UP stood at 8.6 million. Election Commission data shows that there were 134 million voters in the state in the last general elections. So if the Modi government were to transfer Rs 10,000 in these accounts, it would have made a cash transfer to 6.4% of the total voters in UP. This could be a massive boost for the party’s chances in the state assembly elections. Transferring money to these accounts could also severely blunt any political mileage that Mayawati is planning to gain by attacking Modi over the demonetisation issue. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is being touted as the favourite to emerge winner in next year’s election in India’s most populous state. While 6.4% of UP’s voters could potentially sway BJP’s way if the government transfers money in their accounts, the party also stands to gain in other ways.
Any money transfer to zero balance accounts, could raise the expectations of other Jan Dhan account holders. There are 29 million Jan Dhan account holders in UP who have little money in their account. This represents 21.5% of the total voters in the state. With just one move, the BJP would be in a position to potentially tilt almost one third of UP’s voters its way. This of course is based on the assumption that most Jan Dhan account holders are also registered voters.
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Gujarat comes second in the number of zero balance accounts among all the states going to polls next year. There are 1.9 million zero balance account holders in the state. This represents 4.8% of the state’s voters. Furthermore, the number of Jan Dhan account holders with some money in their accounts represent 17.5% of Gujarat’s voters. Since Gujarat is a relatively more prosperous state than UP, the number of Jan Dhan account holders is lower. Any move to transfer money to people’s Jan Dhan accounts will have a lesser impact here than in UP. The decision to transfer Rs 10,000 into people’s accounts could end up pushing a fifth of the voters in Gujarat towards the BJP.
The BJP’s fortunes in Gujarat, where Modi served as Chief Minister uninterrupted for 13 years, has been fading ever since Modi and BJP president Amit Shah moved to Delhi. The BJP had suffered its biggest loss in over a decade in the 2015 local body elections in the state. The Congress had won 63% of all seats in panchayats in the elections. Thanks to this result, the Congress fancies its chances in the 2017 assembly elections. With a one time transfer to these Jan Dhan accoutns, Modi could put paid to any Congress hopes of wresting Gujarat from BJP.
The other states going to the polls are Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Goa and Manipur. Any move to transfer money to people’s accounts could have a similar impact on the BJP’s electoral fortunes.
In the Himalayan states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, 5.8% and 2.6% of the voters have no money in their Jan Dhan accounts.
In Himachal Pradesh 18% of the voters have some money in their accounts. In Uttarakhand, where the BJP is looking to wrest power from the Harish Rawat led Congress government, almost a fourth of the voters come under this category.
Any money transfer move could also help the BJP fight off a stiff challenge from Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab and Goa.
In Punjab, where Kejriwal’s party won its maiden Lok Sabha seat in 2014, 4.1% of the voters have zero balance accounts. Moreover 22% of Punjab’s voters have Jan Dhan accounts with some money in them.
Another state where such a transfer could lead to a change in electoral results is Goa, where Arvind Kejriwal's AAP is a contender. 2% of the voters would be beneficiaries of any money transfer scheme of the government. Additionally, 11% of Goa’s voters with non-zero balance Jan Dhan accounts, could swing towards the BJP with enhanced expectations of them being the next beneficiaries.
Going by statistics, the BJP could make its biggest gains in Manipur. That’s because 9.5% of the voters in Manipur have no money in their accounts. An astounding 31% of the voters have some money in their Jan Dhan accounts. If the Modi government transfers money into the accounts, one in every four voters in Manipur could view the BJP favourably.
This could come as a major boost for the party which achieved a stunning victory in Assam in the assembly elections held earlier this year. The BJP has made impressive inroads in Manipur off late. For the first time in the party’s history, it managed to enter the Manipur assembly by winning two seats in the bypolls held in November 2015. It also made history by registering its highest ever seats in local body elections the state.
There is no doubt that the BJP stands to gain big if the government transfers Rs 10,000 in zero balance Jan Dhan accounts. This could well be Modi’s biggest masterstroke till date.
Twitter: @saiimanish
