Diplomatic spat may not derail Indo-Pak talks

Although the tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats by India and Pakistan in Islamabad and New Delhi have left a bad taste in the mouth, the impression is that this incident alone is unlikely to queer the pitch any further in the peace talks that were going on between the two countries but were derailed following the Mumbai train blasts last month.

Government Spokesman Navtej Sarna asserted on Saturday that Deepak Kaul, the official who was allegedly caught in the course of "undiplomatic activities" "" a euphemism for spying "" and was hooded, handcuffed and taken away for questioning by Pakistani police. But top sources in government are not sure if this was the case.

These sources say Kaul was meeting a "contact" and was compromised. They say Pakistani security agencies, who had kept Kaul under observation for some days, swooped on him.

The Pakistan Foreign Office, faced with this situation, had no choice but to expel him. New Delhi undertook reciprocal action.

There has been some tough talk between India and Pakistan after the blasts. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh virtually blamed Pakistan for the blasts when he spoke of "terror modules being supported, inspired and instigated by elements across the border" while on his way to the G-8 meeting.

This "" and the BJP's demand that India go across the border to find perpetrators of the blasts "" prompted President Musharraf to retort that ideas India might harbour about "hot pursuit" across the LoC should be quickly abandoned.

But on the whole India's response has been cool and calibrated, for even at the height of India's anger after the blasts, the phrase used was "elements across the border" suggesting Gen Musharraf could control these elements if he wanted to but that they were not officially sanctioned. So the spy-versus-spy incident is unlikely to derail ties much more than they are already off the rails.

One reason for the tentativeness with which India has reacted could be Gen Musharraf's own steadily declining credibility with the United States.

Just before President Bush visited Pakistan earlier this year, at a speech to the Asia Society Musharraf said that "the United States and Pakistan understand that in the long run the only way to defeat the terrorists is through democracy," that "Pakistan still has a distance to travel on the road to democracy" and that "the United States and Pakistan both want the elections scheduled for next year to be successful."

There is no evidence that Musharraf is pushing for elections and India believes that if the US does not continue to support him, Gen Musharraf could be counting days. Against this background, escalating "" or de-escalating "" relations with Pakistan could be a waste of time, analysts say.