Never in the history of global trade negotiations, elections to local bodies in any country mattered as much as Madhya Pradesh!
Powerful officials as well as key trade envoys of the World Trade Organization (WTO) say they are eagerly waiting to see what happens in Bhopal after November 27 when the Assembly elections get over.
From WTO chief Pascal Lamy and his officials to trade envoys from various countries in Europe, South America and Oceania want the Congress to win in the state at any cost, says an Asian trade envoy who wanted to remain anonymous.
“Often, I was asked about the Congress’ prospects in Madhya Pradesh and whether Commerce Minister Kamal Nath will become the chief minister if his party wins in the state,” the envoy added.
“If the Congress wins it would augur well for the Doha negotiations,” says another trade envoy, suggesting that dates for the ministerial meeting next month are not announced yet largely due to the MP elections.
Privately, key WTO members — the United States, the European Union, Brazil, and Australia — who cobbled a strong mandate to conclude the Doha modalities talks during the G-20 leaders meeting in Washington last week are hoping against the hope that Kamal Nath does not attend the ministerial meeting next month.
The only way this can happen is through a comfortable majority for the Congress which, in turn, must appoint Kamal Nath as the chief minister.
Once Nath leaves the commerce ministry, the Doha-modalities-drivers reckon that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will appoint his long-trusted lieutenant Montek Singh Ahluwalia as the country’s chief trade official.
If Ahluwalia is the commerce minister, the US will not encounter any opposition to its controversial proposals in the Doha negotiations from India, say trade diplomats.
“If Prime Minister Singh had been India’s trade minister, the Doha Round would have been concluded long time ago,” says a western trade envoy, suggesting that the delay in the conclusion of the talks is largely due to Nath who does not vacillate on India-centric concerns when push comes to shove.
Since 2004 when he was appointed as trade minister, Nath made an impact at each ministerial meeting.
At the framework agreement in 2004 which clarified the Doha mandate, Nath fought a major battle with the then US trade representative Robert B Zoellick, who now heads the World Bank, over developing countries’ right to self-designate special farm products for flexible treatment.
In the face of intense opposition from Zoellick, Nath walked out from the meeting. Subsequently, Zoellick conceded India’s demand for flexible treatment on special farm products.
A year later, at the Hong Kong ministerial meeting, Nath opposed attempts to dilute language on several issues.
Though he conceded on some issues like the market-opening for industrial goods, Nath always stood his ground on the concerns of developing countries in agriculture, which was not liked by the US and its officials, analysts said.
During the failed mini-ministerial meeting in July, Nath refused to budge ground on the special safeguard mechanism (SSM) for developing countries. When the US and Australia piled pressure on India and China to agree to stringent conditions for availing the SSM which is aimed at thwarting unforeseen import surges, he simply refused to fall in line.
In a letter to the WTO chief about two months ago, Nath said SSM is not the only issue on which there is no agreement. He added several issues like farm tariff simplification and creation of farm tariff quotas are yet to be resolved, cautioning Lamy that he should present the correct picture.
Small wonder why there is so much of wishful thinking on the part of the key Doha envoys who want Madhya Pradesh to act as a magnet in pulling back Nath from global trade negotiations!
