The East Delhi parliamentary by-election today, an acid test for both the BJP and anti-BJP forces, may change the countrys political course in the near future. For the first time, the combined might of the BJP, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) are pitted against the strength of the Congress, supported by the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal.
Both sides have made the byelection a prestige issue and have tried to rope in their best crowd-pullers. The BJPs star campaigners were BSP chief Kanshi Ram and BSP general secretary Ramvir Singh Bidhuri. The Congress key campaigners were defence minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, Janata Dal working president Sharad Yadav and cine star Sunil Dutt.
Kanshi Ram appealed to the electorate to vote for the BJP negatively, asking them to reject the United Front as it has people who brought goondaism into politics. BJP leaders themselves emphasise that this would be a vote for the BJP, or against anti-BJP forces.
The Congress candidate, AK Walia, has the support of the United Front, BJP vice-President KL Sharma points out, saying that the BJPs victory would be a negation of the UFs so called secular politics.
He says that the BJPs win would be a milestone in its victory march, which started with the recent Punjab Assembly elections. Sharma claims that most of the voters support the BJP and the party is bound to win, particularly when the Congress is divided.
However, Sharma is cautious not to stress too much on the possibility of the BJP-BSP understanding spreading outside Delhi. The beginning is in the right direction and let us see what happens, he says. The BSPs understanding is only for this by-election, says Bidhuri.
Other BJP leaders privately admit that the understanding in east Delhi is likely to be cemented as the BSP would be increasingly identified with the BJP. BJP president LK Advani and other senior leader had worked overtime to ensure that the BSP supported BJP candidate Lal Behari Tiwari.
Bidhuri has a substantial support base in the sprawling constituency, since his caste brethren, the Gujjars, dominate most of the villages. His last minute decision to leave the Congress and join the BSP was seen by political observers as a move to contest the by-election on a BSP ticket. The BSPs support to the BJP came at almost the last hour.
The Congress has made secularism its major plank. Mulayam Singh Yadav appealed to his supporters to vote for the Congress if they wanted to defeat the BJP. He also said that his appeal was in response to the Congress support for the Samajwadi Party candidate at the Farukhabad Assembly constituency in Uttar Pradesh.
He hinted that to defeat the BJP the SP and the Congress could come together in UP and elsewhere. It remains to be seen whether his appeal would cajole the Muslims to vote for the Congress or they would prefer to vote for the Congress rebel candidate HKL Bhagat, who is the only star candidate in the fray.
Bhagats forte is his familiarity with the voters the constituency was considered his pocket borough till BJP candidate BL Sharma defeated him in 1991. Such is Bhagats clout in East Delhi that many Congressmen privately admit it to be a tussle between Bhagat and Tiwari. Bhagat is sure to cut into the Congresss traditional vote bank and help the BJPs cause.
As per the new demographic profile, migrants from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Punjabis, migrants from the UP hills and scheduled castes form about 50 per cent of the constituencys 27 lakh voters. This is the second largest parliamentary constituency in the country.
With the odds weighing heavily against the Congress, it is surprising that party made the by-election a prestige issue. At the time of nominating Walia, the party anticipated that a divided BJP would not be able to retain the seat held by its leader BL Sharma, a Congress office bearer from Delhi said.
The Congress also concluded that Bhagat would withdraw in Walias favour, as the two have very cordial relations. Even during the election campaign Walia made no secret of the fact that he considered Bhagat his mentor. The Congress gameplan went awry when Bhagat decided to contest as an independent.
Congress Delhi unit spokesman Harcharan Singh Joshi said that Bhagat would not get more than 10,000 votes as he was not attached with the Congress. He claimed that the Congress, which secured 36 per cent votes in 1996 Lok Sabha elections, would wrest the seat from the BJP.
