)
The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), headed by C Rangarajan, is set to issue its review of the economy during 2012-13 in the coming week.
Usually released in February, the review is likely to peg economic growth around 6.5 per cent for 2013-14, against the estimated five per cent in 2012-13.
"Probably Monday or Tuesday," said those in the know, to a query on when the report would be released.
They said economic growth for the current financial year might be pegged a percentage point more than 2012-13. Advance estimates pegged the 2012-13 growth at five per cent. However, PMEAC feels it could ultimately be slightly higher. When asked for a specific number, officials said the FY14 figure might be pegged around 6.5 per cent. The final number is still being worked out.
Similarly, exports are likely to be pegged 10 per cent higher than 2012-13, at around $330 billion in the current financial year. Exports fell 1.7 per cent in 2012-13, to $300.6 bn. It was the first time these had contracted, year-on-year, after 2009-10. However, after a straight eight-month fall, exports have started picking up since January 2013. It grew a 13-month high of 6.9 per cent in March, at $30.8 bn.
The trade deficit touched an unprecedented level of $190.9 bn in 2012-13 against $183.3 bn the previous year. The PMEAC is likely to peg the trade deficit lower, though sources did not specify the number. The current account deficit could be pegged at five per cent of gross domestic product for 2012-13 and lower in this financial year, those in the know said.
There was a small controversy over the PMEAC not having given its review for 2012-13 in March. Many quarters said this was done to avoid conflicting prescriptions to the Union Budget. When asked, Rangarajan said, "Too many things were coming in March. National income data came late, too; therefore, the economic survey also came late. We did not want to crowd too many reports at the same time."
Advance estimates of national income, on which the Budget numbers are based, came on February 7.
When asked about the speculation that the PMEAC had already given its report to the Prime Minister but had not put it in the public domain, the chairman said there was continuous exchange of information with the PM's Office.
He did not divulge the policy prescriptions it would issue. When asked whether the political uncertainty in the form of withdrawal of support of the DMK to the ruling coalition would come in the way of economic reforms, Rangarajan said the reforms would go on.
Gold prices
Rangarajan also said the sharp decline gold prices will have a favourable impact on the economy, especially the high current account deficit and the overall Balance of Payment position, according to a PTI report. Gold prices fell to a 21-month low of Rs 26,440 per 10 g in the domestic markets on April 16 due to continued sell off in the global markets.
