El Nino risk for inflation, farm output in India: Finance ministry

IMD predicts above-normal temperatures this year

The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Niño conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation.  

“Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Niño conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices,” the ministry said in its monthly economic review.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist of Bank of Baroda, said his assumption of 6-6.5 per cent growth for FY24 was premised on steady agricultural growth