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The chances of India's southwest monsoon, the lifeline of millions of farmers, being 'below normal' have risen due to the emergence of the El Niño weather phenomenon, according to a private weather forecasting agency.
In its first indication of the monsoon pattern this year, Skymet Weather Services said this year, the southwest monsoon would probably not experience the La Niña (which translates into excess rainfall), reducing the chances of excess rains.
Skymet sounded caution on the forecast, as outlooks have changed often when the summer sets in.
The India Meteorological Department classifies monsoon rains at 96-104 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) as normal; 105-110 per cent of the LPA is considered 'above normal' and rains exceeding 110 per cent of the LPA are termed 'excess'. Rainfall of 90-94 per cent of the LPA is considered 'below normal' and rains below 90 per cent of the LPA result in a drought.
LPA is the average rainfall received in the last 50 years.
IMD will announce its first official monsoon forecast for this year in April.
In the last decade, 2002, 2004 and 2009 were drought years, owing to the emergence of the El Niño during these years. In 2002, the southwest monsoon was 22 per cent below normal; in 2004; it was 17 per cent below normal. In 2009, when India faced one of the worst droughts in recent years, rains were 27 per cent below normal. In 2012, an El Niño year, rains were seven per cent below normal.
The El Niño phenomenon emerges once every three-seven years. Meanwhile, Bloomberg news agency quoting a statement from the Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said that most climate models suggest the tropical Pacific will warm through the southern autumn and winter. An El Nino trend is likely to develop this year, Gavin Schmidt, deputy director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, said this month.
In its first indication of the monsoon pattern this year, Skymet Weather Services said this year, the southwest monsoon would probably not experience the La Niña (which translates into excess rainfall), reducing the chances of excess rains.
Skymet sounded caution on the forecast, as outlooks have changed often when the summer sets in.
The India Meteorological Department classifies monsoon rains at 96-104 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) as normal; 105-110 per cent of the LPA is considered 'above normal' and rains exceeding 110 per cent of the LPA are termed 'excess'. Rainfall of 90-94 per cent of the LPA is considered 'below normal' and rains below 90 per cent of the LPA result in a drought.
LPA is the average rainfall received in the last 50 years.
IMD will announce its first official monsoon forecast for this year in April.
In the last decade, 2002, 2004 and 2009 were drought years, owing to the emergence of the El Niño during these years. In 2002, the southwest monsoon was 22 per cent below normal; in 2004; it was 17 per cent below normal. In 2009, when India faced one of the worst droughts in recent years, rains were 27 per cent below normal. In 2012, an El Niño year, rains were seven per cent below normal.
The El Niño phenomenon emerges once every three-seven years. Meanwhile, Bloomberg news agency quoting a statement from the Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said that most climate models suggest the tropical Pacific will warm through the southern autumn and winter. An El Nino trend is likely to develop this year, Gavin Schmidt, deputy director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, said this month.
