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Unseasonal rain across much of the central, northern and western parts of the country from the end of February has not only wreaked havoc on farmlands and agricultural output, it has also left the weatherman puzzled, as it is a departure from trend.
The rain is likely to delay procurement of wheat in Punjab and Haryana by at least a week. Typically, the procurement starts on April 1.
Most experts say the southwest monsoon, which usually hits the country in June, won’t be hit. “The rain might not have a bearing on the overall southwest monsoon, but if it persists beyond April, the onset of the monsoon might be delayed,” M N Rajeevan, director of the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), told Business Standard.
In March, 62.5 millimetres of rainfall were recorded, almost 100 per cent more than normal (32.1 millimetres) and the highest in the past 100 years (in 1915, it was 78 millimetres).
Data sourced from private weather forecasting agency Skymet show between February-end and March-end, excess rains were recorded in four of the five weeks. “The country has observed four weeks —February 26 to March 4, March 5 to March 11, March 12 to March 18 and March 26 to April 1 —of excess rains. There has only been one week in between, March 19 to March 25 — when 22 sub-divisions (about 80 per cent of the country) recorded a deficit of 100 per cent,” Skymet said.
The last week, March 26 to April 1, ended with a surplus rainfall of 64 per cent and 16 of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions recorded excess rains during this period. It is expected north and central India will record rains this week.
“Usually, from February, western disturbances tend to subside. But this year, not only were the disturbances more active, they extended up to April. Also, there was an induced low pressure, which pulled moisture both from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. This led to heavy and frequent showers in March,” Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet, told Business Standard.
Rajeevan from IITM says this time, the intensity of rains in March was more due to an El Niño warming effect and the coming down of the winter weather systems. “This is not unusual, though not very common,” Rajeevan said.
The showers and hail, which came at a time when the rabi crop was to be harvested, hit about 10 million hectares of the 60 million hectares of sown area. The standing wheat, mustard and chana crops were hit the hardest. Wheat crop in 21 per cent of the overall sown area has been completely damaged.
Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka also recorded rain in the recent weeks.
