Exit polls predict hung House

ASSAM ASSEMBLY POLL 2006

Assam appears to be heading for a hung Assembly with the incumbent Congress likely to emerge as the single largest party.

At the end of the second and final phase of polling today, an exit poll, commissioned by CNN-IBN-Hindu, showed the ruling Congress surging ahead with 52 to 60 seats in the 126-member Assembly.

The exit poll predicted 25 to 31 seats for the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and its allies, including the Left.

The BJP is likely to get 10 to 15 seats and others 28 to 35 seats, according to the poll, conducted by Prof. Yogendra Yadav of the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, however, exuded confidence and said the Congress would have "no problem" in forming the government. "We will get support from others," he said. The Congress had won 71 seats in 2001.

The exit poll showed the Congress polling 31 per cent votes as against 40 per cent in the last election. The AGP-led alliance is likely to get 22 per cent votes and the BJP 11 per cent. The biggest gainer are others, with 36 per cent votes, six per cent more than the last election.

What seems to have done the Congress in is a significant shift in Muslim votes. According to the exit poll, the Congress could secure just 38 per cent Muslim votes, a drop of 21 per cent. The confusion over the IMDT Act appears to have cost the party dear on this front.

Former Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, who had created history by becoming the youngest chief minister in 1985, appears to be the biggest loser. In response to queries about the most popular leader, only four per cent people voted for Mahanta as against 31 per cent for Brindaban Goswami of the AGP and 33 per cent for Tarun Gogoi.

The BJP managed a gain of two per cent in the number of votes polled but its chances of any significant gains were washed away due to the absence of any tie up with the Mahanta faction of the AGP.

Meanwhile, in contrast to the peaceful first phase, a clash that left one person dead and a poll boycott call by an insurgent group marred the second and final phase of Assembly elections in Assam, in which 70 per cent of the 82.27 lakh electorate voted.

Inter-party violence in Kokrajhar left one person dead while two BSF jawans patrolling Moajan village in Karbi Anglong district were seriously injured when an improvised explosive device (IED) went off.

Activists of the Karbi Longri Northcachar Liberation Front (KLNLF) abducted a CRPF head constable before the start of voting at 7 am.

Morning rain kept people indoors but as sky cleared, they came out in large numbers to vote, amid tight security provided by 42,000 security personnel at 8,995 polling stations.

Today's elections decided the fate of 482 candidates, including Asom Gana Parishad chief and chief ministerial candidate Brindaban Goswami and former chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, in 61 constituencies.

The first phase polling had covered 65 constituencies.

In neighbouring North Cachar Hills, which came under the KLNLF boycott call, 47 cadres of Dima Halam Daogaon (DHD), which had declared a ceasefire, voted.