Exports declined by 13.8 per cent in September, but the fall was lowest in the current financial year, showing gradual signs of recovery in the country’s export sector.
In September, export figures stood at $13.6 billion, against $15.8 billion the same month last year. However, the rate of decline had been arrested since June. Exports fell 28.4 per cent and 19.5 per cent in July and August, respectively, after recording the steepest decline of 39 per cent in May.
During the April-September period, exports declined by 28.5 per cent to $77.9 billion, from $108.9 billion in the first half of the last fiscal.
“This is clearly a validation of green shoots … It is difficult to predict a precise timeline for export growth to transit to a positive phase, though it is expected that it will be towards the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of the current fiscal,” Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar told reporters here today.
He said exports were likely to touch $165-175 billion during 2009-10 if the current trend continues. The country had exported goods worth more than $168 billion during 2008-09.
Exports have gradually moved into the positive zone in the July-September quarter, posting a growth rate of 14.6 per cent, from a fall of 26.6 per cent during the October-December quarter in 2008-09, the sharpest fall so far.
“As far as quarterly growth in the current fiscal is concerned, export performance is definitely turning around. The overall trend in the last three quarters is encouraging,” Khullar added.
Sectors where maximum “glimmers of hope” can be seen are gems and jewellery, engineering goods, petroleum products, readymade garments, drugs, pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals. However, electronic goods still remain a concern area.
Underscoring the need of continued stimulus to help the sector, Khullar hinted at extending more incentives to the handicrafts sectors, which continues to experience a drastic fall due to sluggish demand in the traditional markets of the US, EU and Japan.
Khullar also said newer markets such as New Zealand and Australia were playing the cushioning role, especially for textile exporters.
According to A Sakthivel, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, “turnaround is definitely round the corner and positive growth is expected by the later half of the financial year. However, the stimulus should continue for some time though.”
