India's exports may grow at best by 3-4 per cent in the current fiscal against an impressive expansion of 24 per cent in 2007-08 as the recession-hit US and other global markets saw merchandise sales dipping.
The only consolation is that on an annualised basis, exports are not likely to post a negative trend, thanks to over 30 per cent growth in India's exports up to September this fiscal.
"We will be lucky if we touch the $170 billion target for the current fiscal. This means that a growth of roughly about 3-4 per cent," Commerce Secretary G K Pillai said at a CII annual session here today.
Pillai said overseas shipments up to February this fiscal aggregated $156 billion. Given the dire state of global economy, exporters may gross in not more than US 14-16 billion in March taking the total to around $170 billion.
Exports had a good run in the first half of 2008-09 growing by over 30 per cent. But orders got canceled and exporters found difficult to get new bookings thereafter. As a result, from October onward, the trend has remained negative.
With the US, the world's largest economy, falling into recession, the noise against global outsourcing of both goods and services has become louder. India, China and other emerging economies have been marshalling world opinion against protectionist moves such as 'Buy America'.
On its part, India has denied taking protectionist measures. Pillai said this was clear from a big rise of 19 per cent in the country's imports during April-February.
"Those countries which say that we are protectionists should realise that our imports are growing at 19 per cent to $271 billion in the period of great recession ... Indian economy is quite open," he said.
