Seventeen out of the 40 sectors for which information has been collated in the Ascon Industry Monitor have shown a increase in their export growth in the first quarter of this year over the corresponding period in the previous year, while the rest have reported a fall.
Sugar exports went up by 600 per cent in the first quarter, tyres by 17per cent (compared to -17 per cent in April-June 2000), cold rolled steel strips by 13 per cent (compared to no growth) televisions by 15 per cent (compared to -20 per cent) amongst others.
But exports in automobiles, cement, drugs and pharmaceuticals and software have decelerated in April-June 2001 over April-June 2000.
Automobile exports fell by 5 per cent in April-June this year over the previous year, however, it is expected to go positive in the next six months. Surprisingly, exports of cars grew by a whopping 104 per cent in the first quarter this year but the overall auto export growth was pulled down because of negative growth in exports of light commercial vehicles (-5 per cent), medium and heavy commercial vehicles(-52 per cent) and multi-utility vehicles(-33 per cent) and scooters(-22 per cent).
The overall fall in exports in the auto sector looks more dramatic because the sector had shown a robust growth of 55 per cent in the quarter April-June 2000 over April-June 1999.
The meltdown in the United States has had an adverse effect on software services exports which grew by 40 per cent this quarter compared to 53 per cent in April-June 2000.
There was also some worry for the drugs and pharmaceutical industry which has shown a growth in exports of only 11 per cent in the first quarter compared to a growth of 16 per cent in April-June 2000 over the previous year during the same period. The industry does not expects exports to grow more than 15 per cent in the next six months.
But there are some sectors which are trying to export out of trouble with a recession facing the domestic sector. Steel exports are up by 2.4 per cent this quarter compared to a negative growth of 12 per cent in April-June 2000.
And the industry has projected that exports in the next six months would grow by 5 per cent.
Auto components sector expects exports in the next six months to grow by 15 to 20 per cent, a substantial improvement of the 10 per cent export growth that it has logged in the first quarter of this year. More dramatically, tyre exports are projected to go up between 15 per cent and 20 per cent in the next six months compared to a 17 per cent growth in the first quarter of this year.
