F&O Outlook: Fresh shorts suggest weakness

The markets faltered after a gap-up opening to end the day almost flat. There is strong resistance around 5,000 (Nifty level) and bullishness would emerge only above 5,500, according to a technical analyst.

The Nifty opened above 5,000 on favourable global cues, but met with severe hurdles after touching an intra-day high of 5,019. Enthused by the positive opening, the long traders sold their positions in early hours of trade.

Bear hammering followed immediately thereafter and the Nifty faltered below 4,900 levels in afternoon trade. The bulls lent some support at 4,900 and took the Nifty to 4,940, but another wave of profit booking dragged the Nifty once again below the 4,900 levels. Bears became further active during the closing hour of trade.

The Nifty finally closed flat. The order book positions at close show the creation of fresh short positions around 4,900 levels. This may lead to a flat to negative opening.

The decline of open interest in Nifty March futures contracts by 19.33 lakh shares augurs well for the markets, with the premium to spot reducing to 4 points. This suggests the possibility of a bounce-back at lower levels.

Technically, the recent bounce-back on the weekly charts has happened against the four years supporting trendline. This trendline was however revisited twice in a short time, firstly on June 21 and then on March 10.

The four-years supporting trendline is bullish, but the fact that it was revisited is not a good sign. So, it is safe to go long only above 5400-5500.