F&O Outlook: New positions will dictate trend

The Sensex and Nifty posted modest gains on a day of rangebound trading activity. The Nifty April futures closed with a premium of 14 points at 4785, indicating a built-up in fresh long positions.

However, indecisiveness continues to plague the derivatives players. There is no substantial accumulation in either long or short positions despite an average 7.5 lakh Nifty contracts changing hands every day.

The Nifty April futures open interest is only 31 million shares this month as most players are resorting to profit-booking on an intra-day basis.

Any price movements will depend on fresh position-building, according to derivative analysts. The shorts were covered in the last expiry and hence there is not much room for an upside fuelled by short-covering.

Derivative analysts are advising the positional traders to cover their short positions around the 4700 levels and go long on any dip below these levels.

Call writing has been aggressive at the 5000-5100 levels. There is a cumulative open interest build-up of 30 lakh shares at the strike price of 5000 and 15.6 lakh shares at 5100, suggesting resistance around these levels.

However, a strong rally could compel these Call option sellers to hedge their positions by buying Nifty futures, according to a derivative analyst at PINC Research. This can fuel fresh buying and take the Nifty to the 5000 point.

A strong support is already emerging at 4,800 and 4,900, thanks to aggressive Put writing. Technically, the trendline from the high of 6357 also points to support at 4800. The bulls may hold on to longs till 4500 does not break on a closing basis.