F&O Outlook: Recovery likely on low rollovers

The Nifty remained rangebound throughout the day before ending up by a mere two points at 4830 on account of dull rollovers. The Nifty April futures contracts settled at 4853, a premium of 23 points, due to rollovers of long positions.

However, the total rollovers on Thursday were substantially lower at 27.61 million shares compared to 37.59 million shares during the same time last month.

Low rollovers have historically translated into strong markets, while high rollovers have led to weakness. With the December rollovers being low at 27.64 million shares, the Nifty surged by 400 points before the December contracts expiry.

The rollovers into January were high at 30.57 million shares and the Nifty corrected by a sharp 700 points during the month. The rollovers in February futures remained high at 36.81 million shares and March futures accounted for 37.59 million shares.

The markets were subdued during the two-month period, with the Nifty correcting by 1000 points and hitting a low of 4,450 on an intra-day basis.

The low rollovers of 27.61 million shares into April could lead to a bounceback, going forward. The Nifty futures on Thursday tested the support of 4,800 and resistance of 4,900 before ending at 4,853. The Sensex has a resistance at 16,150 and sustenance above this mark will help the bulls in the short run.

The market has recovered well from 4,450 to 4,900, squeezing deep-positioned short sellers in the process. But a V-shaped recovery is unlikely as bearishness will reassert itself after the oversold conditions correct themselves.