F&O Outlook: Weak rollovers ahead of expiry

The benchmark indices registered gains on Monday. Massive short-covering took place as the global markets are expected to open firm after the Easter holiday.

Despite the Nifty March futures contract expiry merely three days away, the rollovers to April have been weak at 27.6 per cent compared to 35.8 per cent during the same time last month.

In absolute terms, a total of 10.90 million Nifty shares have been rolled over to April three days before this contract expiry compared with rollovers of 15.79 lakh shares three days before the expiry of February contracts.

According to derivative analysts, there were long rollovers on Monday as both Nifty March futures and Nifty April futures traded at a premium during most part of the day.

The March Nifty was trading at a premium of 22 points, suggesting unwinding of short positions. The Nifty April futures closed at a premium of 17 points, indicating long rollovers.

The decline in rollovers shows that derivative players are unwilling to take risks and carry forward their positions, given the extent of fall seen in the last two months.

The bears recently covered their shorts, with the Nifty futures open interest declining from a peak of 44.78 million shares on March 13 to 39.88 million shares on Monday.

The foreign institutional investors have been covering their shorts and building fresh long positions in the last few days. Their overall open interest in index futures has declined by 75,000 contracts to 9.84 lakh contracts.