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After rising phenomenally in the last three financial years, exports of agricultural produce may rise only marginally in 2013-14, as growth in exports of rice (basmati and non-basmati), cotton and wheat is expected to be flat.
Exports of farm products rose 34.52 per cent in 2010-11, 55.56 per cent in 2011-12 and 24.08 per cent in 2012-13. According to an assessment by the Department of Agriculture, cotton exports are expected to stand at 10 million bales in 2013-14 (one bale=170 kg).
“The trend shows in the first six months of 2013-14 (April-September), agriculture exports stood at Rs 108,206 crore, just half of last year’s full exports of Rs 231,993 crore. Therefore, there is little scope of a quantum jump from here,” said a senior Department of Agriculture official. He added wheat exports were estimated at about 6.5 million tonnes (mt).
The agriculture ministry estimates farm exports slightly differently than Commerce and includes a wider basket of commodities, though based on the same set of data. Gokul Patnaik, chairman of Global AgriSystem, told Business Standard, “I believe overall, agriculture exports might not increase much in 2013-14 in value terms. In volume terms, there could be a fall — though rice exports are expected to remain at last year’s level of 10 mt, we may see a fall in wheat exports.”
If India manages to export about 10 mt of rice (basmati and non-basmati), it will maintain its new-found position as the world’s leading exporter of rice. Till September, rice exports stood at 5.4 mt, while 3.5 mt of wheat was exported. In 2012-13, agricultural exports touched an all-time high of Rs 231,993 crore, primarily due to a surge in the export of non-basmati rice, guar gum and wheat. This raised the contribution of the agriculture to overall exports to 13.08 per cent from 12.8 per cent in 2011-12.
