Farm ministry may warn states on scant rainfall

Alterations in cropping pattern will become necessary if monsoon does not revive by June 30.

Even though the weather office is hopeful of a revival of monsoon in the next three to four days, the agriculture ministry wants to alert states to be ready to face any contingency arising out of delayed rains.

Agriculture experts, however, feel that if the monsoon resumes its onward march by around June 16, as indicated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), farm operations and crop-sowing can go ahead in normal manner. Alterations in the cropping pattern will become necessary if the monsoon does not revive by June 30.

Agriculture Secretary Radha Singh proposes to write to all states, suggesting close monitoring of the progress of the monsoon. If the onset of the monsoon is delayed beyond June 30, the state governments will advise farmers to shift from cereal crops, notably paddy, to alternative crops like oilseeds and pulses.

This indication was available in the meeting of the agriculture ministry's crop-weather watch group held here today under the chairmanship of the agriculture secretary.

The representative of the IMD and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) are believed to have indicated that the conditions are now favourable in the Bay of Bengal for an increase in rainfall. As a result, the monsoon is likely to advance to north-eastern states in the next two to three days.

Of the nine parameters used in making the prediction, seven are at present favourable for the revival of the monsoon. The on-going rainfall activity over the peninsula is also likely to continue. Besides, the prevailing heat wave conditions are likely to abate from parts of east-central India, according to met officials.

The cumulative rainfall in the current monsoon season between June 1 and June 8 was about 51 per cent below the normal. The total rainfall recorded throughout the country was 13.7 mm, as against the normal of 25.2 mm for this period.

The south-west monsoon had set in over Kerala and Tamil Nadu on June 5. Subsequently, it advanced into the remaining parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, and has since covered the entire coastal Karnataka, Goa, most parts of south interior Karnataka, parts of Rayalaseema and southern parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh.

However, owing to emergence of a deep mid-tropospheric westerly trough and an anticyclone over central India, the monsoon's further advance had been stalled along the west coast for couple of days, met officials pointed out.

According to the information available from the states, the sowing of paddy has begun in Punjab, north-eastern Assam, eastern West Bengal, Orissa and southern Tamil Nadu. The total area planted so far is estimated at 6.7 lakh hectares, against about 6.9 lakh hectares covered during the same period last year.

The sowing of cotton and coarse cereals is also reported to have begun in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

Farm experts opine that those farmers who have facilities for irrigation may continue with crop sowing, while others should wait for clearer signals on the monsoon.