Farm shrugs off poor monsoon

The revised farm production estimates released by the agriculture ministry today indicate only a marginal drop in output despite a poor monsoon this year. Much of the shortfall in kharif production has been made up in the rabi season.

The production of foodgrain is projected to decline in 2004-05 only by 1.4 per cent from previous year's level thanks to a record rabi harvest of 106.36 million tonnes.

The output of cotton has risen sharply by 15.8 per cent to touch a new peak of 16.07 million bales (of 170 kg each). The pulses output has also spurted marginally by 0.4 per cent to touch a new peak of over 15 million tonnes. The shortfall in oilseeds and sugarcane is marginal, less than 1 per cent.

The latest estimates are based on the feedback received from the states at the two-day kharif conference that concluded today. While the numbers for 2003-04 represent the final estimates, those for 2004-05 are the third advance estimates.

The total foodgrain output in 2004-05 is now projected at 210.44 million tonnes, only 1.4 per cent lower than the upwardly revised 2003-04 estimate of 213.46 million tonnes.

This includes kharif production of 104.08 million tonnes, down 10 per cent from the previous season's revised figure of 116.88 million tonnes.

The rabi output of 106.36 million tonnes is more than 10 per cent higher than that posted in the previous season's revised estimate of 96.58 million tonnes. The latest rabi estimate is some 3 million tonnes higher than the projections released in January.

The production of wheat in 2004-05, estimated earlier at 73 million tonnes, is now projected at 74.05 million tonnes this year, against 72.11 million tonnes last year.

However, rice output, assessed at 87.12 million tonnes, is down 1.3 per cent from last year's 87.12 million tonnes, indicating the effect of the poor monsoon.

The coarse cereal output in 2004-05 is likely to be 34.26 million tonnes, against last year's 38.12 million tonnes. This shows that much of the output loss because of the poor rainfall was in the coarse grains sector.

Oilseeds output is now pegged at 25.15 million tonnes, which is quite close to, though on the lower side of, last year's record 25.29 million tonnes. Of this, 14.69 million tonnes were bagged in the previous kharif and 10.46 million tonnes are likely to be harvested in the current rabi.

Rapeseed and mustard output in the current rabi is estimated at a record 7.64 million tonnes.

Among the fibre crops, cotton has touched a new peak of 16.07 million bales though jute and mesta have dropped marginally to 9.13 million bales and 0.83 million bales (of 180 kg each).

Sugarcane output is estimated at 234.67 million tonnes in 2004-05, against last year's 237.31 million tonnes.