Fernandes, Nitish decide to play safe

Janata Dal (United) has found a new stratagem to strengthen itself vis-a-vis the BJP.

The two most prominent leaders of the party are likely to contest the Lok Sabha elections from two constituencies each.

The justification given by the party leadership is that if Sonia Gandhi could contest from two constituencies, why not George Fernandes or Nitish Kumar?

Accordingly, Union Defence Minister George Fernandes may contest the Lok Sabha elections from Nalanda and Muzaffarpur to neutralise the BJP's claim in the seat-sharing arrangement in Bihar. Similarly, Nitish Kumar could contest from Barh and one other constituency.

In Fernandes's case, although the BJP has claimed the Muzaffarpur Lok Sabha seat on the ground that the party is at a better position to challenge Laloo Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, the JD (U) leadership put its foot down by asserting that the seat traditionally belongs to George Fernandes.

"Fernandes could contest that seat as well," said a senior JD (U) leader. In the case of Nitish Kumar, a second seat has to be found yet.

Fernandes had won the Muzaffarpur seat in 1977 in the post-emergency elections and since then developed a relationship with the constituency.

He shifted to Nalanda in 1996 when Laloo Prasad Yadav challenged him to contest from Muzaffarpur. Fernandes found Nalanda, being a Kurmi dominated seat, a safe constituency because of his colleague Nitish Kumar, who exercises an overweening influence on the Kurmis, a dominant backward caste in Bihar.

Sources in the JD (U), however, say there is uncertainty about fielding Fernandes from Nalanda this time. Reports that relations between Fernandes and Kumar were stained have undermined Fernandes's influence.

With a section of JD (U) going against Kumar, Fernandes was seen responsible for marginalising Kumar's influence in Bihar.

Although both leaders seem to have apparently patched up, there are doubts whether the Kurmis would extend their support in the same measure as they have been doing in the past.

A slightest shift of the Kurmi vote could spell doom for Fernandes in central Bihar. This was why Fernandes was keen to develop his home state Karnataka as yet another stronghold of the JD(U) to retain his hold on the party which had become Bihar-centric.

But the seat-sharing feuds between the BJP and the JD(U) has once again brought Fernandes to the centre-stage of Bihar politics.

A senior JD (U) leader said: "if Laloo Prasad Yadav can contest from two Lok Sabha seats, why not George Fernandes or Nitish ?" JD (U) sources admit that the argument has been put forth to increase the JD (U)'s share of 24 seats out of 40 in Bihar.

However, what has not been factored into the calculation is the effect Nitish Kumar's candidature from two seats will have on Barh.

Observers say that the minute voters in Barh get the feeling Kumar is running scared, he will lose in the constituency.

For the BJP, what appears to have emerged as a major dilemma is its inability to reconcile with the fact that the party would have to play second fiddle to the JD (U) in a state where the BJP has the potential to grow.

But the party's central leadership has conveyed the unambiguous message that seat-sharing has to be clinched to put an end to all confusion.

Union agriculture minister Rajnath Singh, who has been assigned to finalise the agreement, has already made it clear that seat-sharing will be finalised shortly.