The government's fiscal deficit will overshoot the Budget estimates of 4.6% in the current fiscal and will be close to 5.2% of GDP in 2012-13, industry chamber Ficci said today.
"Based on detailed government revenue expenditure trends, Ficci estimates that the fiscal deficit in 2012-13 may be close to 5.2% of GDP as compared to a likely FD of 5.7-5.8% of GDP in 2011-12," the chamber said in a statement.
It said declining receipts, sticky expenditure, stubborn deficit and a revival in growth prospects remains the key challenge for the Government while preparing the Budget.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will present the Union Budget for 2012-13 fiscal in the Lok Sabha on March 16.
Ficci said to achieve a below 5% fiscal deficit for 2012-13, the government may have to resort to some revenue mobilisation measures that may be one off in nature.
Ficci research shows that a revenue mobilisation of Rs 40,000–Rs 50,000 crore and upwards will bring down the fiscal deficit from 5.2% to below 5% in next fiscal.
"Alternatively, the government can hope for some buoyancy in non-tax revenue through 2G /4G," it said, adding that the it should also look at expanding the tax base by bringing agricultural income under the tax bracket.
