A day after concerns were expressed in some quarters over likely impact of below-normal monsoon on the paddy crop this year, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today played down the forecast.
Mukherjee said the predictions of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) were that the monsoon would be just a shade below normal. “They (IMD) are saying it would be around 95 per cent...,” he said.
According to IMD, of the four monsoon zones in the country, only the northwestern region, comprising the fertile states of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, are seen receiving normal rainfall. Normal rainfall is in the range of 96-104 per cent of the long-period average.
Analysts believe the worst affected would be the paddy-growing areas of Bihar, Jharkhand West Bengal, Sikkim and the seven sister states.
“This should pose a big challenge to the government’s plan to raise rice production in 2011-12 to 102 million tonnes from the current level of 94.11 million tonnes, as July and August are the crucial months for paddy,” Ashok Gulati, chairman of the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP), had said yesterday.
He, however, said that he believed any impact on paddy crops would be made up by farmers by sowing more coarse cereals and pulses.
Most economists say even a drop in rice production in 2011-12 should not be a big problem, as the country has sufficient amount of grains in the central pool.
The finance minister asked for some more time so that correct assessment of any impact of monsoon could be made. “Let us wait for some more time...,” he said.
Although the share of agriculture in the country’s GDP has declined over the years to around 19 per cent, it still engages the largest number of people. If agriculture does well, it bodes well for industry through an increased demand. Also, good farm yield means easing of pressure on food inflation, which stood at 8.96 per cent for the week ended June 4.
The agriculture sector grew 6.6 per cent last year, but that was mainly because of a low base of 0.4 per cent. This year, most analysts do not expect it to grow 6.6 per cent or above.
