For NDA, it is now a numbers game

The National Democratic Alliance is watching the political scenario in Bihar with wary optimism as no party or alliance has the decisive numbers to form a government in the state after the fractured mandate.

Similar is the case with the Congress, which found itself at the receiving end of Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad's diatribe. The Congress has called a meeting of its top leaders to decide the next course of action.

Although the Janata Dal (Uni-ted)-Bharatiya Janata Party combine has emerged as the single-largest group after the Assembly polls, the difference between that and forming a government was as much as 30-odd seats.

With Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Ramvilas Paswan, who has emerged as the kingmaker, refusing the NDA his support, the alliance finds itself stuck with a large number of seats that may not mean anything in the numbers' game.

Observers say the strategy in this situation for the NDA will be to keep talking with Paswan and to actually take a head count of Independents who can be won over. "We do not want to stake a claim if there is no bedrock of support as there is a hostile government at the Centre. For the time being, we are looking at Independents who can be won over and to ask parties such as the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party to abstain on the day of show of strength," said a senior NDA leader.

In fact, top NDA leaders who met today as trends emerged, are happy to have dealt a blow to Lalu Prasad, but are quite realistic about their chances of forming the next government.

"We are not sure if we will be able to form a government, and we will prefer not to if it is to be based on an uncertain support base," said a senior leader.

BJP sources said although senior JD(U) leader Digvijay Singh had been asked to explore options with Paswan, they would prefer to sit in the Opposition.

"There is a real threat of imposition of President's Rule in Bihar, and this may have a ripple effect at the Centre. We are happy enough that this election has further deepened the fissures in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) at the Centre," said a senior BJP leader.

Earlier in the day, BJP leader Arun Jaitley, who held parleys with Nitish Kumar of the JD(U), said the voters of Bihar had given an anti-RJD mandate and it should not be allowed to be hijacked in favour of the RJD.

In all the confusion created by the criss-crossing alliances in Bihar, the fact that the NDA can wrest back Jharkhand from the jaws of anti-incumbency has been pushed to the background. The NDA, which has secured 37 seats out of 81, is close to the magical figure of 41 required to form a government in Jharkhand. "We will be getting support from a few Independents and stake claim to form the government there," said a BJP leader.

In the Congress-led UPA, theories and possibilities were being drawn as President's Rule in Bihar appears a possibility. But party leaders were of the view that while it might be the easiest thing to impose President's Rule to prevent the NDA from forming a government, it might not be as easy to get it ratified every six months.

There was also apprehensions that the UPA might do worse if polls were to be held six months later.

Some breakthrough is expected tomorrow.