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The government will issue the gross domestic product (GDP) data for the financial year's third quarter (Q3, October-December) on Monday, though the industrial production numbers for December are yet to be released.
The ministry of statistics and programme implementation will also issue the revised figures for the first and second quarter of 2014-15. So will the advance estimates for the full year's growth, a usual practice around this time, with the Budget for the next year to be tabled on February 28.
Generally, the third quarter GDP numbers come by February-end. By then, the Index of Industrial Production figures are issued. This time, the GDP numbers for Q3 would be partly from projections of industrial growth.
National Statistical Commission chairman Pronab Sen said the results for industry were being gathered from listed companies' results on the stock exchanges, among others. So, these would be close to the actual numbers. Advance estimates are always a mixture of actual numbers and projections. These rely on actual numbers for the first half of a year, actual numbers of industrial production till November and projetions for the rest of the year.
This time, the numbers for the first two quarters would be on a new definition of GDP and the new base year of 2011-12 against the earlier 2004-05.
As things stand now, the economy grew 5.7 per cent in the first quarter and 5.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2014-15, aggregating 5.5 per cent in the first six months. These numbers are based on GDP exclusive of indirect taxes (net of subsidies), which in technical jargon is termed GDP at factor cost. Besides, the base year is 2004-05.
These would be revised on the basis of GDP inclusive of indirect taxes (net of subsidies) and on the new base year of 2011-12. Economic growth has already been revised to 5.1 per cent from the earlier 4.5 per cent for 2012-13 and 6.9 per cent from the earlier 4.7 per cent for 2013-14. The issue is whether growth numbers for the first half of the current financial year would also be higher than estimated earlier. The interesting thing is whether the advance estimates will peg economic growth higher than the 5.5 per cent expected earlier for 2014-15.
Many economists say growth would easily cross seven per cent for 2014-15, since it is already 6.9 per cent for the previous year, though Sen was cautious.
