GDP forecast: Only IMF gets it spot on

With the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) estimates putting India's economic growth rate at 8.7 per cent for the current financial year, spotlight has turned on GDP forecasts by various other agencies.

An analysis of the estimates of nine agencies shows the GDP growth projections varied between 8.4 per cent and 9.1 per cent.

However, the 8.75 per cent forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on February 4 came closest to the CSO's figure.

"We are very happy. The advance estimates are exactly in line with our growth forecast of 8.7 per cent," said Joshua Felman, IMF's senior resident representative in India.

The most optimist forecast came from the policy research agency, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), which projected 9.1 per cent growth. This was followed closely by the 9 per cent forecast by Finance Minister P Chidambaram, who reiterated the figure today.

The NCAER had recently revised upwards its growth forecast from its previous projection of 8.9 per cent. NCAER's Shashank Bhide had said the increase was due to higher capital inflows and lower inflation.