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Food and non-food commodity prices world over are expected to remain either flat or show a declining trend in the next one year, largely due to rising supplies and stable demand.
According to the latest commodity prices outlook report of the International Monetary Fund, prices of rice, edible oil and crude oil could soften in the next few months. The report said the likelihood of per-barrel prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil falling below $90 and Brent crude falling below $100 in the next one year is about 40 per cent, compared to 50 per cent a month before. But, the risk of WTI rising above $150 a barrel has declined to 0.8 per cent from 0.6 per cent, the report said. It said the price of wheat in the international market is expected to be $240-260 per tonne. Rice is expected to slide from $551 a tonne to around $506 a tonne in the next one year.
The price of palm oil in the international markets is also expected to come down from $761 a tonne to around $748 a tonne. This should be of particular importance to India, one of the biggest importers of palm oil. It said global cotton prices were expected to come down from 93 cents an ounce to around 78 cents an ounce by the end of 2014, due to excess supplies. This could cause some worry for Indian exporters, as cotton production in 2013-14 (October-September) is expected to be around 35.3 million bales (a bale is 170 kg), as against 33.4 mn last year.
In metals, the price of iron ore is projected to come down in the next one year. Those of copper and aluminium are expected to remain either flat or rise marginally.
