Gogoi on a sticky wicket, first phase of polls today

ASSAM ASSEMBLY POLL 2006

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed off the election campaign for the first phase of polling for 65 out of 126 seats in Assam by asking youths to shun violence.

He said the Congress was the only party which could provide a stable government and bring about economic progress in Assam.

However, the Congress government led by Tarun Gogoi is on a sticky wicket because of an anti-incumbency factor.

The main fight in Assam politics has always been between locals and outsiders, usually Bengalis and Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh. The Congress has always been considered soft on outsiders while parties which have grown out of a strong student movement, like the Asom Gana Parishad, take a harder line.

But lines are now blurred with even the AGP government led by Prafulla Kumar Mahanta not being able to do much on the issue, causing the party to split into AGP(Progressive) led by Mahanta and the Trinamool Gana Parishad.

The BJP, which is fielding over 120 candidates, is the third force. The party seems to be gunning for the votebank of the AGP, which has tied up with the CPI, the CPI(M) and the Samajwadi Party.

The Congress votebank has been hit by scrapping of the Illegal Migrants Determination Tribunal (IMDT) Act by the Supreme Court.

Muslims play a crucial role in 40 out of 126 seats and formation of the Asom United Democratic Front (AUDF), comprising 12 Muslim and other linguistic minority groups, is not good news for the Congress. In fact, the AUDF has tied up with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which has decided to field 25 candidates.

While local versus outsider remains a major issue, events like flaring up of rivalry between Karbis and Dimasas and the custodial death of a student, Ajit Mahanta, will come back to haunt the Tarun Gogoi government. The only good news for the Congress is that the AGP has been split and the BJP is aiming for the latter's votebank.

Looking at the number of VIP campaigners, including the prime minister and BJP leaders LK Advani and Narendra Modi, it is expected to be a keenly contested election.