Good monsoon could signal end of 30-year cycle of poor rains

Henceforth, we might have more years of normal monsoon as compared to below normal years

This year's bountiful monsoon, the best in the past several years, carries unanticipated good news for the Indian economy.

According to meteorologists, if the ‘above normal’ rains so far in the 2016 season continue to the end of the season, it will also signal the reversal of a decades-long pattern of decreasing seasonal rains

The weather cycle, which started almost 30 years back, is gradually coming to an end and might turn around from 2016 onward. However, this does not mean that all southwest monsoons henceforth will be normal or ‘above normal’.

What it actually suggests is that the probability of India getting more years with normal monsoon for the next three decades increases, based on a 30-year monsoon variability.

 

The change in the weather pattern could have a huge meaning for agriculture, food prices, supply and the overall economic growth of the country.

The new Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD) Dr K J Ramesh acknowledged the development, saying studies are indeed showing that "We are moving from a regime of deficit rainfall to a regime of normal rainfall years in the immediate future and probably ‘above normal’ rainfall in the medium- and long-term."

“We can hope to get more number of years with good rainfall than those with poor rainfall in the next 30 years,” he said.

In the immediate future, the La Nina weather phenomenon, which causes good rains, might spill over to the next monsoon season as well unless there is a major weather anomaly which will be known at least six months before the actual event.

La Nina, which is the reverse of the El Nino and is associated with cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is known to cause bountiful rains over the Indian subcontinent.

The La Nina is expected to start from August 2016 onward and it usually stays on for 18 to 24 months. This clearly means that the southwest monsoon in 2017 might be normal, unless there is a significant weather change in the Indian Ocean.

“We have developed systems and got equipments to monitor those ocean changes as any significant anomaly will be first reflected in the oceans,” Ramesh said.

He said that the robots sent recently to study oceans will help in accurately analysing weather patterns and help determine early if La Nina is diminishing.

India already studies ocean weather patterns through ‘argos’ (specially devised tools for collecting oceanographic measurements and their geographical location) and the robots will supplement those efforts.

The Indian government recently entered into a collaboration with UK's University of East Anglia on a £8 million monsoon project, wherein scientists from both the countries will study the ocean processes in the Bay of Bengal with the help of underwater robots.

The robots, placed deep inside the ocean, will monitor how conditions influence Indian monsoon, which will help in forecasting the arrival and progress of monsoon more accurately than ever before.

Monsoon meter

a) Meteorologists feel that 30-year regime of below normal rains are gradually coming to an end in India. 

b) This might mean more number of normal monsoon years in the near future than below normal ones.

c) La Nina might remain next year also, unless there is a big weather anomaly.

d) India has developed adequate capacities to detect weather anomalies at least six months before the actual event. 

e) The country has entered into agreements with UK University to send robots out into the ocean to study conditions influencing Indian monsoon.