A subdued monsoon in the past week or so, after two weeks of copious rainfall in most of the country, has let farmers complete the kharif sowing.
With 88.9 million hectares having been brought under kharif crops till August 13, against the normal kharif area of 104.5 million hectares, nearly 85 per cent of the sowing is over.
Besides, the shortfall in replenishment of reservoirs has been made up. In fact, the total water storage in dams was one per cent above normal on August 12. It was a worrisome 35 per cent below normal till the third week of July.
EAST, NORTHEAST CONCERNS
However, the concern over kharif sowing in the rain-starved eastern region has heightened due to the ongoing weak phase of the monsoon there. Overall rain deficiency in the east and northeast, 23 per cent in the beginning of August, has worsened to 25 per cent.
Of the eight rain-deficit meteorological subdivisions, the worst affected are (rain deficit in brackets): Jharkhand (-48 per cent), east Uttar Pradesh (-43 per cent), Bihar (-32 per cent), Gangetic West Bengal (-32 per cent), and Assam-Meghalaya (-32 per cent).
The main concern from an agricultural viewpoint is Bihar, where 28 districts have been declared drought-hit, a few districts of northern West Bengal where sowing has been rather poor and some pockets in Jharkhand. Not even half the farm land is reported to have been seeded in some pockets of this zone. The time is running out. Paddy nurseries, too, have begun to wither, especially in parts of Bihar and West Bengal. What is worse, the weather office has predicted continuation of the subdued rainfall phase in the east and northeast in the next week and below normal rainfall even afterwards, till August-end.
| DISPROPORTIONATE | |
| WEEKLY RAINFALL SINCE JUNE (Per cent departure from normal) | |
| Week Ended |
Rainfall
|
| June 9 | 0 |
| June 16 | -8 |
| June 23 | -21 |
| June 30 | -25 |
| July 7 | 2 |
| July 14 | -24 |
| July 21 | -14 |
| July 28 | 38 |
| August 4 | 16 |
| August 11 | -26 |
| Source: IMD | |
Though three other subdivisions also fall in the deficient rainfall category – west Uttar Pradesh (-22 per cent), east Madhya Pradesh (-21 per cent) and west Madhya Pradesh (-20 per cent) – the agricultural scene in these areas is, more or less, normal. The crop planting was facilitated by sporadic showers and availability of irrigation.
| WATER STORAGE IN RIVER BASINS ON AUGUST 12 (In billion cubic metres) | |||
| River basin | Actual | Normal | % Departure |
| Ganga | 6.41 | 8.00 | -19.79 |
| Indus | 9.12 | 7.80 | 16.93 |
| Narmada | 5.14 | 3.72 | 38.27 |
| Tapi | 3.63 | 3.72 | -2.42 |
| Mahi | 0.97 | 1.98 | -50.76 |
| Sabarmati | 0.15 | 0.29 | -44.74 |
| Rivers of Kutch | 0.35 | 0.33 | 7.60 |
| Godavari | 5.37 | 5.20 | 3.31 |
| Krishna | 20.66 | 17.32 | 19.33 |
| Mahanadi | 4.23 | 6.19 | -31.72 |
| Cauvery & east flowing rivers | 4.34 | 4.09 | 5.99 |
| West flowing rivers of south | 6.68 | 7.58 | -11.82 |
| Total | 67.05 | 66.18 | 1.33 |
| Source: Central Water Commission | |||
OVERALL RECORD EXPECTED
Thus, the overall kharif outlook remains optimistic. Krishi Bhawan, the Union agriculture ministry headquarters, expects kharif foodgrain output to be a record one, surpassing the earlier peak in 2008-09. This hope is based on several factors.
For one, total rainfall from June 1 till now is near-normal, just four per cent below the long-period average. And, 28 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 73 per cent of the country’s total area, have had normal or excess rainfall. Reports from states indicate extensive sowing and good crop stand. The attack of diseases and pests has remained, by and large, below the threshold level. Fertiliser sales, too, have been good.
This apart, storage in the 81 major reservoirs, including 36 having power houses, surged to over 67 billion cubic metres by August 12. This is 26 per cent higher than last year’s storage and, more important, one per cent above the past 10 years’ average. This is reassuring for both irrigation and power generation. Only the dams in the eastern regions have poor water stock. The storage there is less than the normal by 30 per cent in Jharkhand, 32 per cent in Orissa and 77 per cent in West Bengal.
Regarding crop sowing, the main kharif staple cereal, paddy, had been planted by August 12 over 27.4 million hectares, 2.28 mha or nine per cent more than last year’s corresponding position. Significant, basmati acreage has increased in Punjab, Haryana and west UP because farmers feel prices would remain firm on better prospects of exports due to extensive flood damage to the crop in Pakistan, the main rival here.
Pulses, major contributors to the high food inflation, which has again entered the double-digit domain, have been sown on 10.3 mha. This is about 1.7 mha, or 23.5 per cent, more than last year’s acreage.
The sowing of coarse grains is up nearly 11.5 per cent from last year, thanks to 20.6 per cent higher sowing of bajra, notably in the arid tracts of Rajasthan and Gujarat, which received good showers in the beginning of the season. Cotton is the other gainer of high price anticipation, as its area has expanded by nearly 25 per cent. The sowing is almost over.
