India's crucial monsoon rains are now expected to be below average, the government said on Monday, turning to contingency plans as rainfall has been about a fifth under par so far and recent rains have not been enough to ease concerns.
The monsoon lost momentum last week, falling 22 percent short of averages and raising the risk of a drought year in one of the world's leading producers of grains and sugar just as global prices hit record highs.
The government scaled down the weather office's forecast of rains at 96 percent of a 50-year average towards 92 percent of the average -- still avoiding a drought.
The poor rains have slowed the speed of planting crops such as rice, cereals, pulses and oilseeds including soybean, but areas under cane, mainly grown in irrigated regions, have been higher than the previous year.
Monsoon rains are crucial for farm output as the showers irrigate 55 percent of India's farmlands. The four-month season accounts for 75 percent of the country's annual rainfall and half of that is usually delivered in June and July.
"Rains are expected to improve over central India this week, but don't expect the improvement to completely wipe out the deficiency in rainfall so far," said S.C. Bhan, a director at India's weather office.
"We don't expect any dry phase in monsoon this week," he added.
The government is taking emergency steps in some areas under contingency plans which would provide for supplies of high-yielding seed varieties, ensure fodder availability and increased power supplies in some areas.
Drinking water will also be prioritised over irrigation where necessary from reservoirs, the statement said, although current low water levels in major reservoirs are not a concern as they have been filling after recent heavy showers in the foothills of Himalayas, the north-east and parts of south India.
Rainfall between 90-96 percent of the long-term average is considered to be "below normal", according to the classification of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Rains less than 90 percent would be a drought -- last seen in 2009 when India had to import sugar, pushing global prices to 30-year highs.
