Govt hikes estimates for foodgrain output

The government today hiked its estimates for the production of wheat, rice and coarse cereals to claim the highest ever foodgrain production of 216.13 million tonnes in 2006-07.

This might necessitate a relook at the gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers for 2006-07 because growth in foodgrain output now works out at 3.6 per cent, against 1.5 per cent projected in April. The last year's total foodgrain output was a mere 208.6 million tonnes.

The Centre also claimed substantial growth in the production of several other crops, including soyabean, sugarcane, cotton and maize, indicating a higher overall growth rate in farm output than reckoned in April. The output of all these crops is now projected at record levels.

The fourth crop production estimates, released by the agriculture ministry today, put the wheat production at 74.89 million tonnes, against 73.7 million tonnes reckoned earlier.

This marks a perceptible increase of 5.4 million tonnes, or 8 per cent, over the previous year's low harvest of 69.35 million tonnes which had prompted the Centre to import nearly 5.5 million tonnes of wheat.

However, Agriculture Secretary PK Mishra, who released the revised estimates, sought to evade questions on why was the government importing wheat at a high cost of over $317 a tonne when the domestic production had risen by 5.5 million tonnes to a comfortable level of close to 75 million tonnes.

He said the latest estimates should be deemed more reliable as these were based on actual crop-cutting experiments and other field-level data.

The revised numbers put the rice output in 2006-07 at 92.76 million tonnes, about 1.1 per cent higher than 91.79 million tonnes. The estimates put out in April had indicated a decline of 0.8 per cent in the rice output.

According to the upwardly revised numbers, the growth rates in different crop groups is as follows (figures in brackets indicate April estimates): rice 1.1 per cent (-0.8 per cent), wheat 8 per cent (6.3 per cent), coarse cereals 0.6 per cent (-3.3 per cent), pulses 6.3 per cent (5.3 per cent), oilseeds -14.7 per cent (-16.9 per cent), sugarcane 22.8 per cent (14.9 per cent), and cotton 22.7 per cent (13.7 per cent).

Oilseeds is the only major commercial crop group where the production has dipped substantially, though the latest estimates show a lower shortfall than projected earlier.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, along with Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, will travel to at least three state capitals immediately after the new President is sworn in.

The PM would discuss the crucial local problems of agriculture, infrastructure development and the rural economy with local officials, politicians and industry representatives, an official source said.