Grain output base lowered

Ministry scales down production estimate for 2004-05 by 6 mt.

Undertaking a major juggling of figures, the agriculture ministry has drastically scaled down the foodgrain production estimate for 2004-05 by a whopping 6 million tonnes to show a handsome 5.8 per cent output growth in 2005-06.

This is likely to result in an upward revision of the 8.1 per cent GDP growth estimated for 2005-06.

The latest crop production estimates for 2005-06 (including last kharif and the current rabi), issued today by the agriculture ministry, put the total foodgrain production at 210 million tonnes.

This marks an increase of 11.6 million tonnes, or 5.8 per cent, over the downwardly revised figure of 198.36 million tonnes for 2004-05.

The previous estimates (fourth advance estimates for 2004-05 released on February 22) had put the 2004-05 grain output at 204.6 million tonnes. The ministry has not explained why the estimate has been lowered by as much as over 6 million tonnes.

The ministry has similarly slashed the wheat output estimate for 2004-05 by over 3.4 million tonnes, from 72 million tonnes to 68.6 million tonnes, to claim nearly 3 million higher wheat production in the current rabi. It has now projected the current rabi's wheat output at 71.5 million tonnes, against the earlier estimate of 73 million tonnes.

According to analysts, while this year's wheat output figure seem to tally with the latest reports from the wheat growing areas, the drastic reduction in the 2004-05 output estimate does not appear logical. If the harvest that year was merely 68 million tonnes, a procurement of above 14 million tonnes would not have been possible, the analysts pointed out.

In a similar surgery with rice production figures, the ministry has lowered last year's estimate from 85.3 million tonnes to 83.1 million tonnes to be able to project a big output jump of over 6 million tonnes to 89.8 million tonnes this year.

Going by today's estimates, the total foodgrain output in the current rabi (now being marketed) has been 100.2 million tonnes, against 101 million tonnes projected in February. But, to show an output push of over 5 million tonnes over the previous season, the last rabi's production estimate has been lowered from 101 million tonnes claimed earlier to merely 95 million tonnes now.

But the estimates for kharif foodgrain production last year have been kept almost unchanged at 103 million tonnes though for the current year, these have been revised upwards from 108.1 million tonnes projected in February to 109.8 million tonnes now.

The output of pulses is projected to rise marginally in 2005-06 to 13.92 million tonnes from 13.13 million tonnes in 2004-05.

Among the commercial crops, the output figures for oilseeds, too, have been subjected to major changes.

While oilseeds production for 2004-05 has been scaled down from 26 million tonnes earlier to 24.35 million tonnes, that for 2005-06 is projected at 26.69 million tonnes. As such, it reflects an over 2-million-tonne increase in oilseed production this year.

Much of this increase is accounted for by soybean where the last year's output estimate has been reduced from 7.5 million tonnes to 6.87 million tonnes and the current year's output projected at 8.35 million tonnes.

In the same manner, cotton output for 2004-05 has been lowered from 17 million bales earlier to 16 million bales now to reflect an increase of 2.9 million bales in this year's production of 18.9 million bales.

Sugarcane production for 2005-06 is now put at 273.1 million tonnes, against 266 million tonnes projected in February. The previous year's output is placed at 237 million tonnes. This marks an year-on-year increase of 35 million tonnes.