Grain projection highest since 2001-02

The agriculture ministry today projected the foodgrain production in 2006-07 at 209.17 million tonnes, the highest since 2001-02, when it touched a record 212.85 million tonnes.

But even at this level, the total grain output is only marginally higher than last year's upwardly revised harvest of 208.59 million tonnes.

Significantly, the output of commercial crops, which have relatively higher weighting in the computation of gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, has been projected to be substantially higher this year. This is likely to push up the agricultural GDP for the current year.

Among the commercial crops, only the oilseeds sector is expected to register negative growth. But cotton, jute and mesta and sugarcane output is projected to clock perceptible gains.

While the production estimate for kharif foodgrains has been raised by over 2 million tonnes, from 105.22 million tonnes projected in September to 107.17 million tonnes now, that for the current rabi season has been put at 102 million tonne, about 4.72 million tonnes, or 4.7 per cent, higher than in the last rabi. Wheat output is reckoned at 72.5 million tonnes, against 69.35 million tonnes last year.

The output of pulses is projected to swell by 1.13 million tonnes this year to 14.52 million tonnes, against last year's 13.39 million tonnes.

Notably, the agriculture ministry has also revised the production figures for 2005-06, putting the total grain output for the year at 208.59 million tonnes, marginally higher than its earlier projection of 208.30 million tonnes.

These changes were captured in the revised GDP figures for 2005-06 released recently by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

The second advanced estimates for 2006-07 issued today predict higher production of most commercial crops, barring oilseeds, which are likely to register a sharp decline of 4.18 million tonnes, or nearly 15 per cent, from last year's 27.98 million tonnes. The output is expected at 23.6 million tonnes.

Cotton output is anticipated at 20.96 million bales this year, against 18.5 million bales last year, and that of jute and mesta at 11.39 million bales, against 10.84 million bales last year.

The output of sugarcane is projected at 315.52 million tonnes, the highest ever. This is 34.35 million tonnes, or 15 per cent higher than last year's 281.17 million tonnes.

The main rabi pulse crop, gram, is anticipated to exceed the 6 million-tonne mark to touch 6.16 million tonnes for the first time since 1998-99, reflecting the positive influence of the current high prices of pulses on domestic production. Last year, the gram output was only 5.6 million tonnes.