Green miracle powers revision of 2005-06 GDP growth figures

First-half estimates for current fiscal likely to change.

The government today revised the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for 2005-06 from 8.4 per cent to 9 per cent, mainly to account for a 54 per cent revision in agricultural growth from 3.9 to 6 per cent, in its quick estimates for the fiscal.

Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram said, "The revised figures augur well for 2006-07, although I must caution that we will have to see its impact on growth figures this year."

A higher GDP base for 2005-06 could lower the 9.1 per cent growth estimates for the first half of 2006-07.

Also notable is an increase in the estimates for savings from 31.1 per cent of GDP to 32.4 per cent. Gross capital formation also improved from 30.2 per cent to 32.2 per cent during the period.

Analysts attribute the unexpectedly good showing by agriculture in 2005-06 to higher foodgrain output and sustained high growth in allied sectors such as animal husbandry, fisheries and forestry. The latter's share in the agricultural GDP is now higher than that of crops.

Foodgrain output grew by about 5 per cent to cross 208 million tonnes, with rice output surging to its highest level since 2001-02. Wheat production of 69.48 million tonnes, though below average, was higher than the previous year's 68.6 million tonnes.

2005-06 also saw bumper harvests for commercial crops. Such crops impact the GDP numbers more than foodgrain because of their higher prices.

The oilseed harvest during the year peaked at 27.7 million tonnes, against 24.3 million tonnes in the previous year. Among other commercial crops, cotton and sugarcane hit production records.