World food prices will rise this decade, boosted by a growing population and changing diets, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in their annual outlook report.
“Real prices of all products other than pig meat are expected to be above their average 1997-2006 level,” the Paris- based OECD and Rome-based FAO said in the report on Tuesday.
Grain, oilseed, meat and dairy prices, adjusted for inflation, will climb between 2010 and 2019 compared with the decade to 2006, before a spike in 2007 and 2008, OECD and FAO said. Pork prices are forecast to be kept in check by rising supply in Brazil and China.
Global food production has to rise 70 per cent by 2050 as the world population expands to 9.1 billion people from about 6.8 billion people now, the FAO has said. Farm-output growth remains on track to meet that goal, OECD and FAO said in Tuesday's agricultural outlook for 2010-2019.
Average prices for wheat and coarse grains are estimated to be 15-40 per cent higher in the coming decade, compared with the period from 1997 to 2006, they said. Vegetable-oil prices will be up more than 40 per cent, and dairy prices will rise between 16 per cent to 45 per cent, FAO and OECD said.
Agricultural prices “will tend to remain” below the peak levels of 2007 and 2008, they said. Sugar, beef and pork didn't share the “rapid” price rise of other products two years ago, and are forecast to rise 10 per cent to 20 per cent in the decade compared to 2007-08 prices, OECD and FAO said.
Cheese, butter
Compared with the peak in 2007 and 2008, wheat, rice, oilseeds, protein meal, butter, cheese and skimmed milk powder are forecast to decline the most in inflation-adjusted terms, according to the report.
“Pig meat prices are not anticipated to increase much beyond 2014 due to a fast increase in supply with high productivity gains in Brazil and China,” the OECD and FAO said.
Developing countries will be the main source of growing agricultural output, consumption and trade, they said. As incomes rise, diets are expected to include more meat and processed foods, favouring livestock and dairy, according to FAO and OECD.
Growth in farm production is forecast to be led by Latin America, Eastern Europe and some Asian countries.
Brazil, Ukraine
Brazil will lift agricultural output by 40 per cent through 2019, from the base period of 2007 to 2009, OECD and FAO said. Ukraine is forecast to raise production by 29 per cent in the period, Russia and China by 26 per cent and India by 21 per cent.
Production growth in the US and Canada is forecast to be in the range of 10-15 per cent, while European Union farm output will increase by less than 4 per cent, according to the report.
World population growth is expected to average 1.1 per cent a year to 2019, with 2 per cent growth in Africa, FAO and OECD said. “On a per capita basis, production growth in least- developed countries is struggling to keep up with rapid population growth,” they said.
Per-capita growth of farm output has fallen in North Africa and West Asia, mainly because of limited water availability, according to the report. In sub-Saharan Africa, production per capita is expected to remain stagnant as increased farming "barely" keeps up with population growth of 2.2 per cent, according to OECD and FAO.
