High on macro targets, low on social sector

10TH PLAN TARGETS PART-II

Despite specific sectors like power, ports, roads and employment falling short of their targets, the Tenth Five-Year Plan 2002-'07 Five-Year Plan has recorded impressive gains in telecom, railways, airport and poverty alleviation.

So indicates an analysis of the 2002-'07 Plan period.

On the fiscal front, the tax-GDP ratio has improved from 8.8 per cent in 2002-'03 to 11.4 per cent in 2006-'07, while fiscal deficit "" Centre and states combined "" declined to 7.4 per cent in 2006-'07 from a high of 9.6 per cent in the first year of the Plan period.

"The infrastructure sector was recognised to be a critical constraint, which needed large investments in the Tenth Plan; public-private partnership models and adequate public resources, in terms of long-term debt and viability gap funding, were evolved. Inspite of all these efforts, it will be behind its target due to fiscal constraints for other infrastructure areas," says Pronab Sen, Principal Advisor of the Planning Commission.

Electricity generation recorded a growth rate of 7.5 per cent in April-December in 2006.

However, according to Sen, "We have failed to achieve the target as trouble in this sector was expected in the beginning of the Plan. But as fair amount of projects are in the pipeline, we will be able to achieve the target of 68,869 Mw for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan."

The railways' project to augment capacity on the Golden Quadrilateral by constructing dedicated freight corridors undertaken during the 10th Five-Year Plan is expected to be completed in the next Plan. The process for construction of Eastern and Western Corridors on Howrah-Delhi and Mumbai-Delhi stretches has already been initiated.

Notwithstanding the fact that there has been some improvement in the port sector, it is estimated that Indian ports will have to gear up to handle cargo traffic of about 800 metric tonnes by 2012, as against 423.6 MT handled in 2005-'06.

Therefore, there is a need to develop ports and related infrastructure, and also to bring them to international standards in turnaround time and clearing of import and export cargo traffic. On education and health, the principal advisor to the Planning Commission laments the sectors' dismal performance.

"The dropout rate from the schools is still high in many states, which is also an area of concern during the next plan (11th Plan)," Sen said.

The dropout rate from elementary schools/institutions was 52.2 per cent in 2003-04.