High turnout may favour BJP

BATTLEFIELD GUJARAT

Small margins of victory and high turnouts can make for a highly unpredictable result. This is what Gujarat appears to be headed for.

In 2002, both the BJP and the Congress increased their vote shares by 5 per cent over 1998. The BJP's percentage went up from 44.8 to 49.8 and the Congress's from 34.8 to 39.2.

The turnout in the 2002 election averaged around 60 per cent. But despite getting 39 per cent of the votes, the Congress was able to manage only 57 seats, though this should have been closer to 70. And although the BJP got 49 per cent of the votes, it got 127 seats, though this should have been around 90.

The average turnout in the election just concluded was 61 per cent. Conventional wisdom "" judging by the last Assembly election result "" suggests that a high turnout favours the BJP. Although the turnout in the morning hours was small, towards the afternoon, the preponderance of women and young people in the crowds suggests Modi's committed voters came out late in the day.

Before the election, the chief minister gave his voters a short voting formula: "Pahle NaMo; Phir Jamo [first Narendra Modi (NaMo), then Jamo (short for eating)]. Clearly, takers for this formula were few, but his voters have made an effort to make up in other ways.

In the 2002 election, the margin of victory was so small in 36 constituencies, a slightly higher turnout could have swung the vote either way. In 28 constituencies, the BJP's margin of victory was less than 3 per cent "" nothing to write home about even though margins are small in Assembly elections any way.

In 2007, although only 87 constituencies have gone to the polls, of these 23 are those where the margin of victory was less than 3 per cent "" both in the case of the Congress and the BJP. Dhrangadhra and Morvi were both won by the BJP by under 1.5 per cent of the vote. The Congress won Bhuj by just 2,500 votes "" 2.3 per cent of the total vote. Similarly, Dasada, a scheduled caste reserved seat was won by the Congress in 2002. But the margin was just 0.7 per cent (613 votes).

There are 14 seats which have a history of unpredictable behaviour. Mandvi, for instance, was the constituency of former minister Suresh Mehta, one of the most prominent BJP rebels today.

Logically, the BJP should lose this seat, but considering that Mehta won it in the last election by a 0.6 per cent margin (598 votes) suggests there is no telling who might win it this time. Prudently, Mehta is not contesting the election this time.

Similarly, Mundra, a scheduled caste reserved constituency, used to see high turnouts and was a reliable BJP seat that saw the party win by 11.2 per cent of the vote in 2002.

However, the BJP candidate has turned a rebel this time. And in the election just concluded, Mundra has seen a record turnout. Will this go in favour of the BJP? Did BJP supporters come out to reject the representative they elected last time? Or did they come out to vote in favour of the candidate regardless of his party? Hard to say.

One thing is, however, certain. For Modi, turnouts and margins apart, Saurashtra represented the single biggest challenge. And for better or worse, that election is now over.