When the Jharkhand Chief Minister Shibu Soren finally resigned on January 12, four days after his defeat in the Tamar assembly seat by-election, he exposed the state to the possibility of imposition of President’s Rule but also stoked the ambition of a section of MLAs, particularly the independents.
The independents stood at gain as they could work out arrangements to support any chief ministerial candidates, helping the political groupings in the state to seize power and to cling onto power thereafter.
The NDA and the others in opposition had made it clear to that they would prefer President’s Rule in the state.
The state Governor, Syed Sibtey Razi, was expected to explore the option of finding a viable alternative from among the UPA constituents and the independents.
The independents were yet to indicate any unanimous choice on a common candidate as the replacement for Soren.
However, like many UPA members, independents were against fresh elections or were also not willing to back a short stint of President’s Rule.
The independents had a reputation in Jharkhand for following a focused agenda and for their ability to bargain hard and become ministers as the arithmetic had never favoured either the NDA or the UPA in their bids to form the government on their own in the past.
For example, Kamlesh Singh switched allegiance at opportune moments time and again and remained a minister in the state during the regime of both the NDA and the UPA ministries.
So even if the UPA formed another government in Jharkhand with a different person as Chief Minister, like the former Chief Minister Madhu Koda or the Soren nominee Champai Soren, it would be at the mercy of independents who would rule the roost once again.
While the independents would maintain their supremacy in that case, UPA constituents such as Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) would not stand to gain, observers here warned.
With Parliamentary elections knocking at the door, the political parties in Jharkhand were not prepared for the polls to the state Assembly also.
Analysts here highlighted the immense importance of the Assembly election for regional parties such as the JMM.
However, regional parties were reportedly not confident about facing the electorate for the Assembly poll at this time, political observers claimed.
Common people at Ranchi were, however, all for the President’s Rule and for fresh elections along with the Parliamentary polls.
Serious ones among them pointed out that it would help the state exchequer save huge sums that would otherwise be required to hold the state assembly polls later.
However, the independents were in no mood to give up their seats or their powers.
At this point of time the state unit of the Congress was not willing to accept Soren’s nominee, Champai Soren, as the next Chief Minister.
In that case, the major parties could support Madhu Koda during whose regime the congress party had issued a "perform or perish" ultimatum.
Issues like corruption and development would be highlighted by the MLAs to avoid elections.
The congress party had earlier toppled Koda but some of its MLAs could be now willing to support Koda.
This would not help the party politically, and voters could get very upset with this position.
As a result, several congress MLAs were today aloof on the matter of selection of a new Chief Minister.
The JMM was also not in position of strength.
Not many among the party were willing to accept Champai Soren as the present deputy CM Sudhir Mahto had been sidelined.
As Mahto belonged to the Kurmi caste, ignoring him could affect the JMM base within the community.
The deputy CM, Stephen Marandi, had earlier left JMM and submitted his resignation at least half an hour before Soren did so.
He tried to send a message that he was more respectful about democratic norms than Soren was.
Reports reaching here from Dumka, Stephen’s constituency and the headquarters of Santhal Parganas which was the JMM’s support base, indicated that Stephen’s followers had already started a campaign and were staging processions to highlight the image of their leader. These factors would work against JMM.
Voters were expected to punish any party that refused to approach the electorate for a fresh mandate and instead chose to submit to the whims of independents determined to cling onto their seats and to power, analysts here warned.
