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India, China not strong enough to drive revival: Experts

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Agence France Presse Beijing

The global financial hurricane has swayed China and India only slightly, but the emerging Asian giants are not yet strong enough to drive a revival in world economic momentum, analysts say.        

For all the talk of Asia as a new locomotive of growth, recent turmoil has only underlined the United States' status as overwhelmingly the most important player.        

"The United States is still the largest economy. If it's in trouble, it'll drag down the rest of the world," said Sherman Chan, a Sydney-based analyst with Moody's Economy.Com.        

"I don't think India and China will be able to save the rest of the world just yet," she told AFP.        

 

While the United States accounts for roughly a quarter of global gross domestic product, China and India combined contribute less than eight percent if measured by official exchange rates.        

"This is a once-in-a-century kind of event, a seismic event, we still don't know exactly what will be the repercussions," said Amitabh Chakraborty, the New Delhi-based head of equity research at Religare Securities.        

"Certainly India is not in a position in any way yet to offset these kinds of global problems."         

China has 1.8 trillion dollars in forex reserves and people like Mei Xinyu,an economist at a government-linked think-tank, believes the "crisis is a good opportunity for buying cheap assets."         

But he also warned China has much to consider before its plunges in, from estimating the real value of US institutions to the risk that Washington will restrict management and voting rights.

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First Published: Sep 23 2008 | 6:48 PM IST

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