India preview: Inflation to surprise Reserve Bank with another slowdown

India’s inflation likely slowed sharply in February, diverging further from the central bank’s projected pickup. Bloomberg Economics estimates the consumer price index rose 4.54% year on year, down from a 5.07% rise in January. Seasonal disturbances and one-off factors that drove inflation upward in 2H 2017 are now reversing. A second month of cooling consumer prices should act to counter the Reserve Bank of India’s hawkish bias, staying its hand in April. The data are due on March 12.

Key points:

* Bloomberg Economics’ expectations for slowing inflation run counter to projections of the central bank. The RBI