Domestic ratings agency India Ratings on Friday marginally revised down its economic growth estimate for 2014-15 to 5.6 per cent, citing poor industrial performance, and warned the government will slip on the fiscal deficit front.
The agency pegged the final fiscal deficit print at 4.2 per cent, against the Budget promise of 4.1 per cent. In the first six months of the financial year, fiscal deficit touched 83 per cent of the target.
The agency, backed by Fitch, revised down the gross domestic production (GDP) growth forecast to 5.6 per cent from the earlier 5.7 per cent in August. "The downward revision in GDP forecast is mainly because we now expect the industrial sector growth to be 4.6 per cent against the previous forecast of 5.1 per cent," it said.
The agency maintained the agricultural growth projection at 1.3 per cent, which experts say will be limited by the weak monsoon. However, it revised up the growth projection for the services sector, which contributes over 65 per cent to GDP, by 10 bps to 7.1 per cent.
The country has had two consecutive years of sub-5 per cent growth, which jumped to 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year. However, due to a continued slump in the monthly industrial output data, analysts expect the upcoming September quarter growth at 5 per cent levels.
The government is expecting the growth to come in 5.5-6 per cent range, while the RBI's median estimate stands at 5.5 per cent.
On the fiscal deficit, India Ratings said even though factors like declining oil subsidy on a fall in global crude oil prices are giving us succour, a slow growth in the tax revenues would likely result in the government over-shooting its 4.1 per cent target and we will close FY15 with a 4.2 per cent gap.
The agency said the recent move to deregulate diesel, which was caused largely by the decline in international crude prices, will help save Rs 15,000 crore in oil subsidy in FY15.
The agency said there is a low probability of RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan cutting the interest rates at the policy review on December 2, but will do so in February next.
It said the average consumer price inflation for the entire fiscal will come in at 7.8 per cent, as against the 9.5 per cent in the year-ago period.
