Obama has already said that the two need to talk on Kashmir.
It is now almost certain that by the time Barack Obama is ‘inaugurated’ as the new President of the United States on January 20, 2009, he will have assembled his core team of advisors — the new Secretary of State and ambassadors to UK, France, China and India. It is almost certain that Robert Gates will continue as Secretary of Defence, possibly till April.
Normally, sources in the US embassy here said, it can take several weeks to name people for these jobs. In Obama’s case, the time lag will be short because he is believed to have virtually finalised the list of those he will turn to for help, direction and guidance in implementing the Democratic agenda. He will also want to telescope the process of confirmation of the appointments which is required by the Senate by law.
Politically, what he will most definitely not want to do is be seen as being railroaded by the Clintons — Hillary and Bill — who, with their supporters, fought a bitter battle to secure the Democratic nomination for President and lost.
This is why, US sources said, it is highly unlikely that Bill Clinton will seek to be appointed special envoy for Kashmir. For, not only have the loud and outraged Indian gasps of indignation been conveyed to the US, but also, “Clinton himself realises the limits to the usefulness of such an initiative”, a US embassy source said.
On the other hand, Indian policy-makers argue that if “change” is extended to the US foreign policy, then it could mark the return of a South Asia policy that hyphenates India and Pakistan.
Obama has already said in his speeches that India and Pakistan need to talk on Kashmir. And if his speeches are any indication, where terrorism is concerned he considers the war in Iraq secondary to fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
A US policy towards South Asia that looks at the region through the prism of Afghanistan, not Kashmir, would necessarily require reassuring and winning over Pakistan and making Afghanistan a part of the Grand Bargain with Pakistan. This, in turn, will inevitably mean pressure on India on Kashmir. Pakistan will welcome another chance to ask the US to mediate on Kashmir. That the mediator will be Clinton is doubtful because Clinton is likely to have a limited traction with policy-makers in Pakistan after the role he played in the Kargil war.
Indian policy-makers are hoping that pressing domestic problems — the rebuilding of the economy, validating race in the domestic context and putting the administration together — will keep the new American president busy for most of 2009. As international and European sympathy is likely to give him the balance of the advantage, Indian policy can no longer predicate itself only on the economic or defence partnership: the fulcrum of the political relationship might shift.
But for the record, Obama has said he will work towards a strategic partnership with India. Speaking to an India-based news agency, he said he would support “comprehensive immigration reform,” including the H-1B visa programme “to attract some of the world’s most talented people to America,” but stop the abuse of the programme.
On the contentious topics of outsourcing and globalisation, he said: “We know that we cannot and should not put up walls around our economy.” Acknowledging that global competition “is a fact that cannot be reversed,” Obama added: “But we must find a way to make globalisation and trade work for American workers.”
Meanwhile, India today greeted Obama on his election as the 44th US President with the government and political parties hoping to further strengthen relations with the world's oldest democracy.
President Pratibha Patil and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent congratulatory messages to the 47-year-old Obama and invited him to visit India "as soon as possible". Students, professionals and politicians welcomed the election of the US' first African-American President as "historic" and said they looked forward to heralding of an era of a "less confrontational" America.
“We look forward to strengthening the partnership between India and the US and continuing the close engagement that we have developed in recent years both in bilateral cooperation and in addressing global issues of common concern," External Affairs Ministry spokesman Vishnu Prakash said.
CTBT back on agenda
The ghost of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) looms before India as Barack Obama — a back-to-basics Democrat dedicated to nuclear disarmament — assumes office as the US President.
Obama is on record supporting US ratification of the CTBT: “As president, I will make it my priority to build bipartisan consensus behind ratification of the CTBT”.
John Holum, Obama’s pointsman on non-proliferation said the case for CTBT had been strengthened since the US Senate rejected ratification in 1999.
But ratification requires a two-thirds majority in the US Senate, something that still eludes the Democrats.
Moreover, the signing of the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement has reduced the leverage the US could have had in getting India to sign the CTBT, which India views as discriminatory. China continues to stay outside the CTBT, citing lack of domestic consensus as the reason.
