According to Basu, the country's growth rate would be in the range of 7-7.5 per cent as has been maintained by the World Bank in its previous forecast. The multilateral lender will put out its next half yearly economic forecast for India on January 7, 2016.
"I don't know which way it will go(in the ensuring forecast) but it would be roughly in the ballpark range of over 7 per cent or between 7 and 7.5 per cent. No matter where it is-either the top end of it or the bottom end- India will still be the leader among major economies. There are a few smaller economies going faster but among the major economies India expected to be on the top not only in 2015 but we expect India to lead the chart in 2016 as well," he said when asked about his assessment of the country's economic performance in the light of varied opinions in this regard.
Speaking to media at the end of the valedictory session of 98 th annual conference of Indian Economic Association presided over by himself, Kaushik Basu said on the whole India was doing well except in the area of exports in the past one year.
Notwithstanding the trend in the last 12 months on the export front, India has a great potential in the export sector, particularly in the export manufacturing sector, according to him.
"The opportunity in manufacturing sector is very high especially because now wages in China are rising. It is true that in the last 12 months we have not done well but the potential here is huge and Indian can do better," said Basu, who was the Chief Economic Advisor for Government of India from December 2009 to July 201.
Stating that India's ease of doing business has actually improved over last year, he said that this will also contribute in the long run to the exports.
Responding to a question on the impact of Fed rate on global investment flows, Kaushik Basu said the Indian exchange rate moved a lot when the first announcement was made in 2013 but that has not happened this time around. He said that this shows that in some ways India is a stronger economy, which will able to take the small rise in interest rates in the US.
Earlier in his valedictory address, Basu cautioned that India should make demands on global capital without actually driving it away. India and China were the two countries that had benefited out of globalisation while several others had lost out.
India's growth was not just an outcome of reforms but the investments in higher education and engineering education in the past had resulted in the movement of Indians to countries like the US where 50 per cent of H1B Visas goes to Indians, according to him. Basu said that India's take off from the year 1994 and 1995 was driven by the services sector while historically the country was not doing well in manufacturing sector.
