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The country had shipped 6.5 million tonne wheat last year, with maximum stock exported from government godowns. Ban on wheat exports was lifted in September 2011, but shipments took off strongly only after August 2012.
"Assuming continued exports of wheat from government stocks and export price parity for Indian wheat vis-a-vis other origins, wheat exports during 2013-14 marketing year are forecast to increase to 8 million tonne," the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest report.
Of this, 5 million tonne wheat will be from government side, while 3 million tonne will be sourced from open market by private traders, it said.
Indian wheat has been very price competitive in the global market, particularly after the government allowed exports of wheat from its godowns in July 2012, it added.
According to the USDA, exports of government-held stocks are likely to continue unabated this year due to tight storage facilities, while the government will be under tremendous pressure to clear stock to accommodate the new crop.
"The government is likely to continue to liquidate additional wheat stocks in the export market in 2013-14 and possibly 2014-15" also because current international prices are significantly higher than the domestic prices, it said.
However, any significant weakening of global wheat prices may adversely affect export prospects, USDA cautioned.
Despite the government�s efforts to offload wheat in the domestic and export markets, government-held wheat stocks on February 1, 2013, were estimated at 30.8 million tonne, compared to 23.4 million tonne in the year-ago period.
Wheat stocks in government godowns have piled up due to record production in the last two consecutive years. This year too, the country is set for a near-record wheat harvest of 92.3 million tonne on strong planting and favourable growing conditions.
