Scientists’ joint study predicts temperature may rise by 1.7-2.2 degrees.
India may get warmer by 1.7-2.2 degrees Celsius in the 2030s with respect to the 1970s, with an overall warming in the four climate-sensitive regions, namely, the Himalayan region, the Western Ghats, the coastal areas and the northeast region.
More, extreme temperatures are expected to increase by 1-4 degrees Celsius, with the highest rise in coastal regions. Also, the extreme maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase by the 2030s, says a report released by the Union ministry of environment and forests (MoEF).
Called ‘Climate Change and India: a 4x4 assessment’, it is a sectoral and regional analysis for the 2030s. It has been prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), a network-based programme that brings together 120 institutions and 220 scientists from across the country to undertake scientific assessments of different aspects of climate change. This is the second major publication of INCCA. In May, a report on greenhouse gas emissions in 2007 was released, making India the first developing country to publish such data.
The report says key sectors like water, forests, health and agriculture will be affected in a major way due to the increase in net temperature by 1.7- 2.2 degrees in another 20 years in the four climate hotspots. Besides, it predicts an increase in precipitation (rain, snow and storm) in the eco-fragile areas of the Himalayas, northeast, Western Ghats and the coastal region.
“There is no country in the world as vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India is,” said environment minister Jairam Ramesh while releasing the report here.
The report noted the sea level along the coast has been rising at 1.3mm/year and is likely to keep doing so, with a decrease in the frequency of cyclones in the 2030s, though cyclonic intensity would increase.
On agriculture, the report says irrigated rice in all the regions are likely to gain in yields marginally due to warming, though there will be stress on livestock. Hence, milk productivity would fall.
Moderate to extreme drought severity is projected in the 2030s for the Himalayan region. All the regions are likely to experience flooding. On health, the report predicts malaria would spread in new areas in Jammu and Kashmir in the Himalayan region while in the northeast, opportunities for malaria transmission are likely to increase for a longer period.
