India won't be the next China if it can't even out-export Bangladesh

A bigger danger is that instead of taking corrective action, politicians may double down on past mistakes and seek salvation in autarky

India’s Covid-19 economic gloom turned into despair this week, on news that its per capita gross domestic product may be lower for 2020 than in neighboring Bangladesh.

“Any emerging economy doing well is good news,” Kaushik Basu, a former World Bank chief economist, tweeted after the International Monetary Fund updated its World Economic Outlook. “But it's shocking that India, which had a lead of 25 per cent five years ago, is now trailing.”

Ever since it began opening up the economy in the 1990s, India’s dream has been to emulate China’s rapid expansion. After three decades of persevering with that campaign,