The delay in the withdrawal of the monsoon is not an unmixed blessing though its overall impact on the output prospects for the current kharif and the subsequent rabi is deemed positive. Besides causing floods in the country’s key grain bowl in the north-west, notably in parts of Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, the relentless rains have delayed the picking of cotton and have adversely affected vegetable crops, pushing up their prices sky high. Even the harvesting and marketing of seasonal fruits like apples has been hit due to incessant showers in the entire northern hilly belt.
The weather office rules out any possibility of the monsoon to begin retreating any time before September 17, the period up to which its medium-term monsoon prediction models can distinctly foresee. Normally, it begins to recede from western Rajasthan on September 1 and bids adieu to the whole north by the middle of September.
The models for long-term prediction are indicating an increase in the rainfall activity in central and peninsular India between September 18 and 24. The rainfall in the country as a whole will remain normal even during this period, says the weather man.
The cumulative rainfall in the whole country between June 1 and September 11 is now in the positive domain, being two per cent above normal. Only the north-eastern zone is now deficient in rainfall (by 20 per cent). Nearly 85 per cent of the country’s total area has got normal or above-normal rainfall till now.
High rainfall in August and September is attributed largely to the emergence of La Nina (cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters), which invariably has a positive influence on the monsoon. This factor is expected to endure at least till the end of the current monsoon season, bring copious rainfall in September.
| RAINFALL IN THE LA NINA YEARS (% higher than normal) | ||
| YEAR | SEPTEMBER | WHOLE SEASON (June-September) |
| 1954 | 43 | 4 |
| 1970 | 23 | 13 |
| 1973 | 11 | 8 |
| 1998 | 24 | 5 |
| 2007 | 18 | 6 |
| 2010 (Forecast) | 15 | 2 |
| Source: IMD | ||
As a result of the intensification of monsoon since the last week of August, the drought-hit areas of the east and the north-east have received adequate moisture to facilitate planting of alternative, short-duration crops, especially of pulses and fodders, in the fields that had remain unsown so far. This is likely to mitigate the losses due to persistent paucity of rains in this region. The worst-affected, from agricultural viewpoint, were the whole of Jharkhand, parts of Bihar and 11 of the 16 districts of West Bengal.
Countrywide, the crop coverage this season has been far better compared to not only the rain-starved 2009 but also to the good rainfall year of 2008. The total area sown under kharif crops till the end of August was 8.3 million hectares higher than in 2009 and 1.15 million hectares more than in 2008 when the country had reaped a record kharif foodgrain harvest of 118.14 million tonnes.
Interestingly, the sowing trends this year have been markedly influenced by both pattern of rains and, more significantly, the ruling commodity prices. In fact, the impact of the prices is visible more distinctly than that of the rainfall when a comparison is made between the sowing pattern of 2010 and 2008, the two years of similar good rainfall.
The area planted with rice and oilseed, the commodities whose prices have remained more or less stable, has come down this year by nearly two million hectares and 700,000 hectares, respectively, compared to that in 2008. But, on the other hand, there has been a considerable expansion in acreage under those commodities that have witnessed a perceptible spurt in prices, such as pulses, coarse cereals like bajra and maize, and commercial crops like cotton and sugarcane.
Among the pulses, the maximum expansion in acreage has been under tur (arhar or pigeon pea), which has witnessed the highest rise in prices. Mung (green pea) and urad (black pea) come next in terms of increased plantings. The higher acreage gain by bajra, compared to maize that has substantial industrial demand, can be attributed partly to better rainfall (55 per cent above normal rainfall in west Rajasthan) in the chief bajra growing belt of Rajasthan and Gujarat.
The total area brought under kharif crops this season till September 9 is estimated by the agriculture ministry at nearly 99 million hectares. This is 7.6 million hectares more than last year’s corresponding coverage of 92.33 million hectares. The area under paddy is estimated at 33.67 million hectares, against last year’s 31.3 million hectares, and that under coarse cereals at 21 million hectares, against 20.4 million hectares last year.
The land under pulses is reckoned at 11 million hectares, against 9 million hectares last year, and that under oilseeds at 17.1 million hectares, against 16.7 million hectares in last season. Cotton, whose sowing is over and harvesting is about to begin, occupies 10.6 million hectares, against last season’s 9.8 million hectares, and sugarcane about 4.82 million hectares, against 4.17 million hectares last year.
The total water stock in the country’s 81 major reservoirs has risen by September 9 to 103.156 billion cubic metres, some 32 per cent higher than last year’s corresponding level and 11 per cent above normal for this time of the season. Many dams have their flood gates opened due to unabated water inflows.
