Hurricane Irene, a weak Category 1 storm with winds of 75 miles an hour, is nearing New York City, where it threatens some 80,000 homes worth more than $35 billion with storm surge, forecasters and analysts said.
The storm, packing as much as 15 inches of rain, will hit near the time when tides are high across much of the region, according to published tide tables. A storm surge of 3.8 feet was reported at New York Harbour, while water levels near 8.6 feet were reported at Battery Park City in lower Manhattan, the National Hurricane Center said.
“With the storm surge and the amount of water it brings, the most important aspect is to just evacuate,” said Scott Little, vice president and general manager of CoreLogic Inc Spatial Solutions in Austin, Texas. “I don’t see a lot of change between now and the time it hits. Obviously, the lower the storm surge, the lower the damage.”
Irene may become the most powerful storm to strike New York since Hurricane Gloria in 1985. It may inflict $6.5 billion in overall economic losses on the US before being absorbed in other weather systems somewhere over Canada or the Atlantic early next week, according to estimates by Kinetic Analysis Corp. Gloria’s strength was between categories 1 and 2 when it made landfall on Long Island.
Hurricane Irene made its first landfall early yesterday on North Carolina’s outer banks, flooding roads and knocking out power to more than a million homes and businesses, according to local utilities. At least nine people have died.
Tumbling trees and debris dragged down power lines and winds blew over electrical poles, cutting off power to homes and businesses from South Carolina to Pennsylvania, with worse expected today as the storm rakes New York City.
As of 8 am local time, the storm was about 40 miles south-southwest of New York City, moving at 25 miles per hour, and was causing water levels to rise along the coast, according to a National Hurricane Center advisory.
“A gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so,” according to the advisory. “The centre of Irene will move near or over the coast of New Jersey and over western Long Island this morning and move inland over Southern New England by this afternoon. Irene is forecast to move into Eastern Canada tonight.”
In Long Beach, a city of about 35,000 on a nine-mile barrier island, the surge may be 6 to 10 feet above normal, said Kara Guy, a spokeswoman for Nassau Country. Waves higher than 10 feet (3 metres) crashed down on the wide beach of 131-year-old Long Island City, about 25 miles from midtown Manhattan.
NEW YORK CITY
CoreLogic, a business risk information provider based in Santa Ana, California, estimates 80,861 homes in New York City and Long Island valued at $35 billion are vulnerable to damage from storm surge if Irene remains a Category 1 hurricane. Irene may have caused between $500 million and $1.1 billion in damage to the Bahamas earlier this week, according to estimates by AIR Worldwide in Boston.
Amtrak will halt train operations in the southeast, mid-Atlantic, northeast and New England today, according to a company release.
Irene’s winds will be stronger at higher elevations, so high rises in New York and other major cities will experience more intense buffeting than lower structures, according to the hurricane centre.
“So you have to worry about falling glass and windows being blown out,” said Bill Leatham, a meteorologist with Hometown Forecast Services in Nashua, New Hampshire.
HIGHER TIDES
The Northeast is also experiencing higher tides because of a new moon, so a storm surge now will be higher than it would at other times of the month, said Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Weather 2000 Inc in New York.
If Irene’s losses exceed $1 billion, it will be the 10th such costly natural disaster in the US this year, a record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The US has suffered $35 billion in losses due to nine separate events so far in 2011, according to NOAA.
President Barack Obama declared emergencies for North Carolina, Virginia, Connecticut, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, while New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered the first mandatory evacuation in the city’s history.
In North Carolina, 10 major roads were flooded after Irene made landfall near Cape Lookout, on the Outer Banks. Irene weakened from a Category 3 storm with 120-mph winds last week, and North Carolina Governor Bev Perdue said the hurricane wasn’t as powerful as first expected.
‘DAMAGE’
The storm still needs to be respected, said Tom Kines, senior expert meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc in State College, Pennsylvania.
“If a thunderstorm rolls through with 50- to 60-mile-per-hour winds, we know what kind of damage that can do,” Kines said by telephone. “It can knock a tree over or damage a house and that is just a gust. Imagine what it can do over a more prolonged period?”
No one should discount the storm “just because they’re not getting 100-mile-per-hour winds,” Kines said.
Transit systems in New York and New Jersey were shut down and evacuations were ordered in New York, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia.
HURRICANE WARNINGS
Hurricane warnings were posted from Chincoteague, Virginia, northward to Sagamore Beach in Massachusetts, including New York City, according to the hurricane center. Tropical storm warnings are in effect north of Sagamore Beach to Eastport, Maine, as well along much of the North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland coasts, according to the weather service.
Wind and rain warnings were issued for parts of Quebec, New Brunswick and Newfoundland, according to Environment Canada.
Irene’s hurricane-strength winds stretch 125 miles from its centre. Tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph extend 320 miles from the core.
Rainfall of 10 to 14 inches were recorded over eastern North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia, according to the hurricane centre.
Water levels have been rising “rapidly” in advance of the centre of Irene, with a storm surge of 3.8 feet in New York Harbour and 3.9 feet at Sandy Hook, New Jersey, the centre said.
